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GBP/USD 15M
The higher linear regression channel reversed to the downside on the 15-minute timeframe, and the lower one - upward. Thus, a new upward trend has started in the short term, but it can also be very short-lived. Everything will depend on the ability or inability of traders to overcome the 1.3606-1.3626 area.
GBP/USD 1H
The GBP/USD pair slightly corrected below the critical Kijun-sen line on Tuesday, however, the downward movement ended very quickly. In total, the pound/dollar pair managed to move 140 points away from 2.5-year highs. Judge for yourself whether this is a lot or not. From our point of view, this is not even a correction, it is a pullback. The pound continues to rise despite the fact that most fundamental and macroeconomic factors are not in favor of the British pound right now. Thus, even though the pair's quotes have settled below the upward trend line, the upward movement can easily resume, since the upward trend is very strong. Overcoming the resistance area of 1.3606-1.3626 will make it possible for buyers to enter the market with renewed vigor. As for the sellers, they just have to wait for the moment when the bulls are completely saturated with unreasonable, from a fundamental point of view, purchases.
COT report
The GBP/USD pair fell by 15 points during the last reporting week (December 22-28). Despite the fact that around 300 points were passed from low to high during these four trading days. Thus, first of all, we can conclude that the upward trend is still present for the pound. Secondly, there are minimal price changes. A new Commitment of Traders (COT) report showed that professional traders closed both Buy (longs) and Sell (shorts) contracts. In general, there are minimal changes in the number of open/closed contracts for large traders on the pound in recent months. During the reporting week, a group of non-commercial traders closed 1,640 Buy-contracts and 296 Sell-contracts. Thus, this group of traders became a little more bearish. We can clearly see what is happening among large traders through the two indicators in the chart. The first shows regular changes in the direction of movement of the green and red lines for at least four months. That is, to put it simply, professional traders cannot decide what to do in the long term. We are increasingly inclined to believe that it is not the pound that is getting more expensive, but that the dollar is getting cheaper. Thus, almost everything depends on the demand for the dollar, and not on the actions of large traders on the pound or euro. The second indicator shows that the net position has become bullish for professional traders, but has stopped growing. Thus, according to the latest COT report, we can conclude that non-commercial traders are not too eager for new purchases of the pound.
The fundamentals for the British currency have been extremely weak in recent days. The news about the new lockdown was supposed to knock down the British pound, but it didn't. Although it is clear to absolutely every trader that the third lockdown will clearly not pass without leaving a trace for the British economy, which is already going through hard times because of Brexit. In addition, a report on business activity in the UK manufacturing sector was published on Monday, which rose from 57.3 to 57.5. Not a bad value, but it clearly does not cover all the negative that we now receive from Great Britain.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is set to speak on Wednesday. It is not a fact that the BoE chairman will say anything important, nevertheless, you should not miss his speech. Recall that the BoE has been hinting at the possible introduction of a negative rate for several months, and the fact that the trade deal with the EU has been concluded is unlikely to change the central bank's mood, although the mood will, of course, improve. In general, we will await new information from Bailey on this issue. In addition, the UK will publish an index of business activity in the services sector. According to forecasts, it will be 49.9, but we expect the value to be much lower in December.
We have two trading ideas for January 6:
1) Buyers for the pound/dollar pair did not stay above the trend line, but can still resume the upward movement. Thus, if the quote surpasses the 1.3606-1.3626 resistance area, then we recommend buying the pound again while aiming for the resistance levels of 1.3753 and 1.3847. Take Profit in this case will be from 90 to 190 points.
2) Sellers seem to have seized the initiative in the market, but could not continue the downward movement after breaking the trend line. Thus, we recommend selling the pound/dollar pair while aiming for the support level of 1.3496 and the Senkou Span B line (1.3405) if the price manages to surpass the Kijun-sen line (1.3589) again. Take Profit in this case can range from 60 to 150 points.
Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD
Explanations for illustrations:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the "non-commercial" group.
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