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The pound almost stood still in spite of the fact that it was quite busy yesterday. Some activity was observed only after the opening of the American session, and even then it was rather symbolic. At the same time, oddly enough, the pound for the most part reacted more to inflation data than to the decision of Congress to impeach Donald Trump. Democrats, who have a majority in Congress, once again voted for the resignation of the current President of the United States, but this is probably the end of the question. The fact is that Republicans have a majority in the Senate, and without their approval, this decision is basically impossible. The Republican leader in the Senate immediately said that in the remaining few days, senators, with all their desire, would not have time to physically consider this issue. Moreover, the case has not yet been transferred from Congress to the Senate, without which senators cannot begin to consider it. The funny thing is that the Democratic leader in Congress has not given an answer to the question of when exactly the case will be transferred to the Senate. Therefore, the fourth impeachment of Donald Trump, in fact, turns into another information hype, which is arranged by the Democrats without any practical result. Although the insistence of the Democrats is nerve-wracking.
The pound was indeed more likely to react to the inflation data, albeit with a slight delay. Especially since the data itself turned out to be incredibly good. According to the most daring forecasts, inflation was expected to rise from 1.2% to 1.3%. As a matter of fact, it accelerated to 1.4%. The only thing that raises the question is that the pound could weaken a little more against this background. Apparently, this is due to political factors that create constant pressure on the dollar.
Inflation (United States):
It is unlikely that we will see any serious reaction to the data on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States today, since the market practically ignores macroeconomic statistics, including even inflation. Although the forecasts for them are quite positive. Of course, the number of initial applications can grow from 787 thousand to 790 thousand. However, the number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits should be reduced from 5,072 thousand to 4,850 thousand. That is, the total number of requests may decrease by 219 thousand. And it is due to repeated requests. So unemployment, albeit slowly, continues to decline, which is good news. Nevertheless, the market reaction will be extremely restrained, and the weakening of the pound will clearly be extremely limited.
Number of initial applications for unemployment benefits (United States):
The GBP/USD currency pair during the recovery process relative to the correction course of 1.3702 ---> 1.3450 found a resistance point in the face of the local maximum of the medium-term upward trend of 1.3690 / 1.3705, where there was a slowdown followed by a pullback of 1.3698 ---> 1.3611.
The speculative mood that took place at the beginning of the trading week reduced the appetite, which affected the volatility.
The market dynamics of the past day is only 87 points, which is considered a low value for such a dynamic currency pair.
If we proceed from the current location of the quote, a sideways movement in the range of 1.3611 / 1.3654 can be seen, which has been taking place on the market for more than 10 hours.
Looking at the trading chart in general terms, the daily period, it is clear that the quote is still at the conditional peak of the medium-term upward trend.
It can be assumed that the range of 1.3611 / 1.3654 serves as a cumulative process in the market, which can lead to an acceleration of dynamics in the event of its breakdown. The most optimal trading tactic is considered to be the method of breaking a particular border.
Trading recommendations:
It is advisable to buy the currency pair at a price above 1.3660, with the prospect of a move to 1.3700.
It is advisable to sell the currency pair at a price below 1.3600, with the prospect of a move to 1.3550-1.3500.
From the point of view of comprehensive indicator analysis, it can be seen that technical instruments on the hourly and daily periods signal a purchase due to price fluctuations at the conditional peak of the trend. Minute intervals signal a sale due to the rollback stage.
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