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The euro rose by 21 points yesterday in anticipation of Federal Reserve head Jerome Powell's announcement to keep the Fed's monetary policy unchanged, namely, the refusal to control long-term bond yields and refraining from announcing plans to adjust the current policy at the end of the year. These reasons were announced in the media. The only snag in our view is the issue of control over 10-year bond yields. The current US debt is 27.746.239 trillion dollars, with a ten-year bond yield of 1.045%, and this is slightly higher than the estimated future debt service of 31.2 trillion dollars, considering the latest stimulus measures taken. To service such debt, the 10-year yield should be already estimated at 0.8%, otherwise the world will face new global shocks. Thus, the desire of investors to see higher yields is almost groundless, these desires come only from the expectation of a weakening of the coronavirus pandemic. Control over the yields on long-term government bonds will certainly be established, but is still unknown in what form (hidden or announced), closer to the spring, the Fed will open the curtain.
At the moment, the price is below the level of 1.2177, after testing it for the fifth day in a row this morning. On the increased activity of market participants at the Fed FOMC meeting, this level can be easily overcome, but we are waiting for a return under it with the prospect of fixing under the MACD line on the daily scale chart (1.2075), which will lead to a further decline in the euro to the target level of 1.1915.
The price on the four-hour scale pushed off from the MACD line yesterday, but the Marlin oscillator remained in the downward trend zone. The standard price behavior in this case happens with another attempt to consolidate under the MACD line. But the Fed FOMC meeting is not one of the standard situations, so the variations that have already been mentioned are possible.
So, either today or after the markets return to normal volatility, the price can be expected to decline below 1.2115, then below 1.2075.
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