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Stock markets confidently recovered yesterday, which contradicts the trend that has developed in recent years – the movement of the US dollar.
The beginning of the week showed that investors were unprepared to continue the sell-off in the stock markets. On the other hand, the massive fiscal stimulus measures that were adopted earlier and the hopes for the implementation of a new aid package amounting to $ 1.9, are not allowing the markets to decline, albeit being well aware of the nature of stock growth, which is supported by financial bubbles. In general, this situation is the reason why the consolidation period started with temporary outbursts of fluctuating stock indices.
Such scenario is expected to continue until the positive balance, which includes large-scale stimulus measures, the vaccination process and general expectations of an early start of the V-shaped recovery of the world economy, outweighs the negative balance, which includes the negative consequences of the pandemic to the economies and to the lockdowns in European countries, as well as ambiguous corporate reporting of companies, whose season is now in full swing.
On Monday, data on business activity in the manufacturing sectors of China, Germany, the UK and the United States were published. The indicators in the first and last country showed a decline, but they rose in Germany and the UK.
The RBA, in turn, left the key rate unchanged at 10% and announced an increase in the volume of purchases of government bonds by 100 billion AUD. Naturally, this decision did not support the exchange rate of the national Australian currency.
The market continues to focus their attention on this week's publication of two-stage employment data in the US. On Wednesday, the values for the number of new jobs from ADP will be released, followed by the official report from the US Department of Labor on Friday. We believe that these data will have a significant impact on global markets in general and on currency markets in particular.
Now, let's get back to the conflicting coordinated movement between the US stock market and the US dollar. In recent years, there has been a strong correlation between the growth of the stock market and the decline in the dollar. However, this was not seen yesterday, as the dollar rose along with stock indices. In our opinion, the US currency has received and continues to receive support from the continuing growth in Treasury yields amid skepticism about the full implementation of J. Biden's stimulus measures.
If we assess the market situation, we believe that the general dynamics in the markets will remain until the end of this week.
Forecast of the day:
The AUD/USD pair is under pressure from two things: RBA's monetary policy decision and the US dollar's strong positions due to rising Treasury yields. We believe that the pair may decline to the level of 0.758.
The USD/CAD pair is trading at the level of 1.2815. A consolidation above it will lead to its further growth to 1.2915.
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