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The local correction in EUR / USD is obviously over. Now, investors need new guidelines to determine the next movement of the European currency. But given the fact that euro was growing even amid a completely empty macroeconomic calendar and is now stubbornly refusing to go further up, market participants expect that it will sharply decline, while USD will be the one to rise.
However, the most optimistic forecasts for US inflation were not confirmed. Aside from that, the growth rate of consumer prices remained unchanged, as shown by the preliminary estimate. Hence, dollar's growth is very uncertain, which means that EUR / USD will likely remain in place.
Inflation (US):
So now, all hope lies on the upcoming data for jobless claims, which should provide enough reason for a rise in USD. After all, judging by the forecasts, the US labor market continues to confidently recover. In fact, initial claims are expected to drop from 779,000 to 750,000, while repeated claims are expected to decrease from 4,592,000 to 4,451,000.
All in all, unemployment in the United States continues to gradually decline, which has a positive effect on the pace of economic recovery.
Initial jobless claims (US):
Yesterday, EUR / USD refused to show any activity, trading only around 1.2112 / 1.2144, which fits into the area of interaction of trade forces at 1.2130 / 1.2160. Everything that happened is very reminiscent of a cumulative process, which will ultimately lead to an acceleration of activity and growth of speculative transactions in the market.
Aside from that, market dynamics are signaling a sharp decline in volatility, by more than 50%. This also confirms an upcoming accumulation.
And looking at the daily chart, it is very clear that the quote broke above 1.1950, as a result of which EUR / USD traded at 1.2130 / 1.2150. However, this movement is only a part of the correction, which started at 1.2349 and ended at 1.1950.
Taking this into account, it can be assumed that the movement around 1.2112 / 1.2144 will end soon, and a local surge in activity will take place. In such a situation, the best strategy is to work for a breakout relative to the primary impulse.
In short:
- Open long positions from 1.2150 to 1.2160-1.2190.
- Or open short positions from 1.2110 to 1.2090-1.2070
Indicator analysis also show that technical instruments signal BUY due to the upward movement from 1.1950.
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