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Yesterday, both the euro and the pound swung from side to side. Their movements generally coincide, except for the time that the pound reached another multi-year high at the opening of the Asian session. Afterwards, it was very similar again. Both currencies were systematically declining during the European session, but after it closed, they sharply rose again. It should be noted that there were simply no reasons for such fluctuations, as there were almost no macroeconomic data. The only data released was US new home sales, which increased by 4.3%. However, these data are not very important and the market always ignores them. And so it happened yesterday. At the time of their publication, the market observed a stop in the decline of European currencies, which was followed by growth.
Meanwhile, one cannot even grasp the countless speeches of the Fed representatives, which were actually surprisingly impersonal. In fact, the US regulator did not say anything. It was just filled with neutral and meaningless words.
New Home Sales (United States):
Today, there will be a more eventful macroeconomic calendar. It is possible that the least interesting will be the publication of the second estimate of the US GDP in the fourth quarter. It should only confirm the first estimate, which showed a slowdown in the rate of economic decline from -2.8% to -2.5%. But this is already expected by the market. On the other hand, durable goods orders are forecasted to rise by 1.2%, which assures to turn into further growth in retail sales. It can be agreed that we will have good and promising news.
In addition, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits may decline from 861 thousand to 810 thousand, while repeated applications may also do so from 4, 494 thousand to 4, 400 thousand. Overall, there are extremely optimistic forecasts for US macroeconomic statistics. However, the massive speculative hype may cause the market to probably ignore all these data. In any case, the Euro currency may further rise. This is indicated by the pound's behavior, which initially rose to the next high, slightly rebounded, and then resumed its growth. There is no question of any reduction.
Durable Goods Orders (United States):
The EUR/USD pair approached the resistance area of 1.2180/1.2190 again, where a reduction in the volume of long positions occurs on a regular basis.
We can assume that if the previous pattern repeats, the quote will rebound again towards the level of 1.2130.
An alternative scenario of the market development will be considered if the price holds above the level of 1.2200.
The GBP/USD pair still moves within the medium-term trend high, regardless of its high overbought status. Speculative hype relative to the long positions may reappear in the market once the current high of 1.4224 is updated.
Moving in an upward trend, one should be prepared for a sharp change in trading interest in the case of high trading volumes.
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