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1. Analysis of bitcoin futures volumes from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).
2. Analysis of the long-term trend.
3. Analysis of the medium-term trend.
4. Analysis of the short-term trend.
5. Japanese candlestick analysis.
6. Conclusions.
7. Statistics.
1. Analysis of bitcoin futures volumes from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).
The analysis uses data on horizontal volumes from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on daily charts. The analysis is based on the footprint-profile theory, in which the movement of the maximum volume level for the day can indicate the likely direction of the trend. The maximum volume level is the level at which the maximum number of transactions was made, that is, the level of a large player. Accordingly, the upward movement of the maximum volume levels indicates an upward trend. A downward movement of the maximum volume level indicates a downward trend. Chaotic movement of the maximum volume levels indicates a flat in the market.
23.02.21 – The highest horizontal volume level (POC - Point Of Control) - 47750
24.02.21 – The highest horizontal volume level (POC - Point Of Control) - 50625
The point of control has moved up. The price is below the POC level. The market is in a sideways correction, you can both buy and sell.
2. Analysis of the long-term trend.
A trend is a friend of a trader. Many traders know this saying but do not know how to use it. The answer is simple: trade only in the direction of the trend. This way, your trades will have more profit potential with less risk. According to the classic Dow theory, there are three main trends:
These are the trends that you need to analyze before opening any transaction. This is what we will do in this analysis.
The long-term trend in this analysis is the daily trend. Trades will be made on a daily time frame, and will be held for several days. The analysis of the daily trend is made with the help of the 48-period exponential moving average (EMA (48)). If the daily candlestick closes above the EMA (48), it means that we are facing an upward trend and you should buy. If the daily candle closes below the EMA (48), it means that the trend is downward and you should sell.
The chart shows an upward trend. The price is higher than the EMA (48), so in this situation it is worth considering purchases.
3. Analysis of the medium-term trend.
In this analysis, the medium-term trend will be the trend on the 4-hour chart (H4). The 48-period exponential moving average (EMA (48)), will also be used for this analysis. If the H4 candlestick closes above the EMA (48), it means that the trend is upward and you should buy. If the H4 candle closed below the EMA (48), it means that the trend is downward and you should sell.
The price is lower than the EMA(48). Medium-term trend is downward, it is possible to sell.
4. Analysis of the short-term trend.
The short-term trend, which can well show the entry point to the market, will be considered a trend on the H1 timeframe. The 48-period exponential moving average (EMA (48)) will help us. If the H1 candle closed above the EMA(48), it means that the trend is upward and you should buy. If the H1 candlestick closes below the EMA (48), it means that the trend is downward and you should sell.
The price is in line with EMA (48). The short-term trend is sideways, you can sell and buy. Long-term, medium-term, and short-term trends do not coincide.
5. Japanese candlestick analysis.
The classic Japanese candlestick analysis is used for the daily timeframe. In this analysis, we will also analyze the daily candlestick.
Closing the daily candlestick up, the candlestick is white. The extreme points are within the extreme points of the previous candlestick. The candlestick pattern is Harami. It's probably an upward movement.
6. Conclusions.
General conclusion: On February 25, 2021 - you can both buy and sell
7. Statistics.
To analyze the effectiveness of this approach, statistics on completed transactions are kept. The forecasts are made for four instruments: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and BCH/USD. Trading account monitoring:
The result for February 2021 is +10.93%.
Statement:
It is not recommended to open a new deal, as there is uncertainty in the market. For new trades, the stop loss is located beyond the daily extreme points. We do not set Take Profit, since we will accompany the transaction by moving the Stop Loss beyond the extreme points of new days.
Since trading is carried out on daily charts, this recommendation is relevant throughout the day.
Trade with the trend and you will gain profit!
¡Los informes analíticos de InstaForex lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaForex, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.
