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GBP/USD - 24H.
The GBP/USD currency pair has adjusted in half by 450 points. 450 points sound solid, however, in practice, it is a meager correction in the long term. The illustration does not even fully fit the last five-month round of the upward trend, which led to the growth of the pair by 1,600 points. And for the last two weeks, the price is tightly stuck between the levels of 1.3800 and 1.4000 and does not want to leave this side channel. And this is all, with a failed fundamental background from the UK, which we have already written about many times. Even if you sweep the fundamental background aside, after such a strong upward movement, there must be a proportionate downward correction. We will also put aside technical factors. The pound is heavily overbought, as it has risen by 28 cents (2,800 points) over the past year. But all these factors do not interest the markets at all, which allows us to continue to conclude that only two factors affect the exchange rate formation: the pumping of money into the American economy and the speculative factor. In the last 5-6 months, the pound has been moving very "bitcoin-like". Thus, in fact, over the past two weeks, the technical picture has not changed at all. The price is fixed below the critical Kijun-sen line, so what? If the bears can't get any further down the line. Thus, to make further forecasts, you need to wait for the pound/dollar pair to exit the $ 1.38 – $ 1.40 channel.
COT report.
During the last reporting week (March 9-15), the GBP/USD pair increased by 75 points. However, this growth is very conditional, since the last two weeks are in an absolute flat for the pound. As for the mood of traders, in recent weeks, the Non-commercial group continued to increase its net position, which indicated an increase in the "bullish" mood. Only the last two weeks, including the latest COT report, which came out this Friday, have been "bearish". A week ago, there was a drop in the net position by 6 thousand contracts, a new COT report showed its decline by another 6.5 thousand. Thus, one could even assume the end of the upward trend, but pay attention to the movement of the first indicator in recent months. The green and red lines, which represent changes in the net positions of the "Non-commercial" and "Commercial" groups of traders, constantly changed the direction of movement and were near the level of 0. This suggests that the mood of the major players was constantly changing, and the rate of the pound/dollar pair, meanwhile, was moving for "its reasons". Thus, the current "signal" about the possible end of the upward trend, with a high degree of probability, may be false. We remind you that the pound is having huge trouble showing a downward movement. Markets persistently do not want to get rid of it, and global fundamental factors may cause a new round of upward trend in the coming weeks.
During the current week in the UK, there was also something to pay attention to. However, this "what" is a meeting of the Bank of England, which turned out to be very boring and uninteresting. The key rate remained unchanged, there was no speech by Andrew Bailey this time, the asset repurchase program remained in the previous volume, the regulator did not give any signals about a possible change in the key parameters of monetary policy in the near future. Thus, after the meetings of the three central banks, we can say the following: none of them are ready for changes in the near future, all are waiting for an acceleration in inflation, economic recovery and are guided by the Fed. Thus, by and large, traders had nothing to even react to. Such an indicator as to the growth of US Treasury bond yields, if it has an impact on the dollar, it is not paired with the pound sterling. Thus, in general, the "foundation" for the British currency this week turned out to be quite weak, and traders failed to withdraw the pair from the side channel.
Trading plan for the week of March 22-26:
1) The pound/dollar pair has returned to the area below the critical line on the 24-hour timeframe, but this means absolutely nothing now since the price is inside the 200-point side channel. There are also no short-term trends on the lower timeframes. Trading can be conducted to rebound or overcome important levels, which we regularly share in our daily reviews.
2) Sellers took the first step towards the downward trend and that was the end of their efforts. At the moment, the chances of a further drop in quotes are slightly higher, but as we have already said, the key role is now played by the side channel 1.3800-1.4000. If the price leaves it, a new trend may form.
Explanation of illustrations:
Price levels of support and resistance (resistance/support) – target levels when opening purchases or sales. You can place Take Profit levels near them.
Ichimoku indicators, Bollinger Bands, MACD.
Support and resistance areas – areas from which the price has repeatedly bounced before.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts – the net position size of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts – the net position size for the "Non-commercial" group.
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