07.04.202111:40 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Oil market is gaining momentum – Brent crossed the mark of $63 per barrel

On Wednesday morning, oil prices continued to rise amid forecasts of a global economic recovery and an increase in energy demand. The day before, the International Monetary Fund improved the forecast of large-scale economic growth for the current year to 6% from 5.5%, and for the next year - to 4.4% from 4.2%.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration raised the forecast for demand for liquid hydrocarbons in 2021 by 0.2 million barrels per day (b/d) compared to the recent scenario — to 97.7 million b/d.

As a result, the price of June futures for North Sea Brent crude on the London ICE Futures exchange reached $63.05 per barrel, gaining 0.49% since the close of the previous session. The day before, these contracts reported an increase of 1% — up to $62.74 per barrel.

The price of WTI crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) approached the level of $59.6, jumping 0.46% above the level of the previous session. On Tuesday, the price of similar contracts increased by 1.2%, to $59.33 per barrel.

At the moment, the black gold market is demonstrating full acceptance of the recent OPEC+ decision to increase oil production and plans to use the reduction in uncertainty for its own benefit. Obviously, the level of supply in the market in the short term is quite clear to investors, so now traders can focus on the prospects for demand.

Furthermore, the general increase in optimism in the commodity market in the hope of an early recovery in economic activity and an increase in demand for risky assets are becoming a powerful catalyst for the rise in oil prices. Investors believe in a permanent increase in the speed of growth of the global economy this year, which is supported by fresh domestic statistics from the United States.

So, according to the report of the American Petroleum Institute (API), the decrease in black gold reserves in the United States for the previous week was 2.62 million barrels per day. At the same time, analysts predicted a decline of 1.33 million. A week earlier, this indicator increased by 3.91 million b/d.

Commodity market participants are awaiting the official report on reserves from the US Department of Energy, which will be published later on Wednesday evening. If you believe the scenarios of experts, the agency will report a drop in reserves by 1.44 million barrels.

Today, we can confidently say that the black gold market has reached a certain point of equilibrium and is in some intermediate position. To break this stability in the direction of a confident positive trend, a spectacular recovery of the global economy and a further increase in energy demand are needed.