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The wave counting on the 4-hour chart is still quite unambiguous and looks quite understandable. The downward trend section, which originates at the beginning of this year, looks fully completed, although it is not completely clear whether it has taken the form of a-b-c or a-b-c-d-e. One way or another, now I believe that it has completed its construction, therefore, the construction of a new upward trend section has begun. Its internal wave structure does not look like anything yet, since at the moment only the construction of the first wave has begun. Therefore, I expect at least two more waves within this section of the trend. Thus, in the coming weeks, the instrument may grow to the 20th and 21st figures. Also, the option with the construction of a new impulsive section of the trend is not completely ruled out, since the last downward trend was corrective. Accordingly, with a favorable development of events, the instrument may exceed the previous peak from January 6 at about 1.2350. However, this option needs the help of the news background.
The news background for the Euro/Dollar instrument is very weak at the moment. Yesterday, there was not a single economic report in the European Union, and in the US - only a report on claims for unemployment benefits, which turned out to be slightly worse than market expectations. However, it did not affect the movement of the instrument. And there was simply no other news during the past day. But like a bolt from the blue, the call of US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen for the introduction of a single corporate tax throughout the world sounded. In America, the government is going to raise the corporate tax, which was lowered under Donald Trump, but there is a strong fear that American multi corporations will begin to leave the US in search of cheaper tax havens.
You can register a company in any offshore and poor country where taxes are a priori lower or none at all. To prevent this from happening, large and rich countries have called on everyone in the world to introduce a single corporate tax of 21%. Obviously, such a decision, if made, will be beneficial to just such countries, since it will no longer be profitable for large corporations to leave them in search of cheaper tax territories. At the same time, it is not yet entirely clear how America and the company are going to motivate those countries that refuse to follow the general trend. Indeed, at this time, only the G-20 countries (and not all of them) and the IMF have voted in favor of Janet Yellen's initiative. But what about countries like Colombia? One way or another, for the United States, an increase in the tax base can really mean a new outflow of companies abroad. The US dollar may be under pressure this week on the background of this news.
Based on the analysis, I still expect the formation of a new upward wave, possibly the first in a new upward trend segment. I do not see any sense in defining targets so far, since a new trend segment is just emerging. Nevertheless, I expect the instrument to rise to a minimum of 1.1978, which corresponds to 50.0% Fibonacci. I recommend buying an instrument for each MACD "up" signal. The supposed wave 2 or b may begin to form soon.
The wave counting of the upward trend section still has a fully completed five-wave form and is not going to get complicated yet. But the part of the trend, which began its construction immediately after it, takes on a corrective, but quite understandable form. This part of the trend also looks quite complete.
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