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Wednesday's trading in global stock markets ended in different directions. The focus remains on the fight against COVID-19, as well as the prospects for recovery and growth of the economies of Europe and the United States.
It can be recalled that the previous presented figures on US consumer inflation caused a wave of dollar sales and purchases of company shares in the stock markets. It was really unusual, since the markets were eagerly waiting for the latest data on consumer inflation to be released. However, investors began to take profit on the growth of the US dollar and short selling in stocks. All this was explained by the common principle of "buying on expectations and selling after the fact."
In our opinion, it is not even the statements of the Fed members and their Chairman J. Powell that the regulator will not change the monetary exchange rate for at least one more year has the most significant role here, but the stabilization of Treasury yields. It should be noted that it was their strong growth when this year began that shocked the markets and caused a sell-off in the stock markets with a simultaneous USD strengthening.
Now, the question arises, what next? How will the markets behave in the context of stable Treasury yields?
We believe that our earlier assumption that lower yields or their stabilization will cause an increase in demand for company shares and a decline in the dollar is justified.
As for stocks, a decline in turbulence in the government bond market clearly has a positive effect on the demand for shares, but at the same time, the US dollar is losing support, since there is an imbalance between positive reasons for it. The main of which was the increase in Treasury yields and massive measures to stabilize the US economy and support the population. Here, a clear shift occurs towards the latter.
The continuation of such trends will definitely stimulate the purchase of shares of American companies and put downward pressure on the dollar.
We believe that this trend will continue in the markets in the near future, as long as Treasury yields consolidate sideways.
Forecast of the day:
The EUR/USD pair is consolidating above the strong support level of 0.7700. Today's positive data on the Australian economy does not support the pair yet. We believe that if the US dollar continues to be under pressure, and the pair holds above this level, then it will further rise to 0.7800, and then to 0.7840.
The NZD/USD pair has reached the resistance level of 0.7150. It is likely to make a downward correction to the level of 0.7100 before continuing its growth to 0.7235.
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