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Everything depends on Christine Lagarde's statement today, which she will do so during a press conference after the European Central Bank meeting. The essence of this issue is that the European regulator not only voiced its concern about the growth of inflationary risks at the beginning of this year, which was happening amid the sudden increase in consumer prices, but also warned everyone about its readiness to take tough measures to curb this very inflation. In other words, the European Central Bank made it clear that if inflation continues to grow at the same rate, then monetary tightening is inevitable. It is also worth noting that the ECB was the only representative of the monetary authorities, who openly voiced this problem and warned about the possible consequences. As a result, this gave investors the opportunity to prepare for a possible rise in interest rates. However, inflationary dynamics have slowed down noticeably since then, and apparently, the situation has stabilized. Therefore, there are generally no reasons for any tough measures.
What's left is a small matter. It is necessary for Christine Lagarde to publicly declare the reduction of inflationary risks. If she does, and this is what investors are expecting, then the Euro currency will receive a great reason to rise. It can be recalled that the warning about inflationary risks and the possibility of tightening monetary policy clearly worried investors, and this put some pressure on the euro. The words of Christine Lagarde can remove this issue, and although the single European currency has already strengthened well, it can surge further. At the same time, it should be clearly understood that the entire currency market revolves essentially around the EUR/USD pair, and if the euro grows, it will pull other currencies along with it. However, all this will become a reality only if Christine Lagarde declares a reduction in inflation risks. Otherwise, the US dollar will increase.
The EUR/USD pair found support within the level of 1.2000 yesterday, where the downward spiral stopped, resulting in an amplitude of 1.2000/1.2050. In this case, it is worth moving not just on the principle of breaking a particular border of a given range, but focusing on the signal levels – 1.1990, 1.2000 and the high of the 1.2080 of the upward trend.
The GBP/USD pair continues to work on a rebound from the psychological level of 1.4000, but the scale of the pound's weakening is still not significant. The next short positions will be considered after the price is held below the level of 1.3900, or else, there may be a cumulative process within the resistance level.
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