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The oil market is entering a period when good news makes you think, and bad news gives you a reason to be optimistic. It is not for nothing that prices rose in response to the OPEC+ intention to increase production by about 2 million b/d from May to July. Investors believed that the alliance expects a rapid recovery in global demand if it risks increasing production in such conditions. A similar story takes place at the end of April. The concern of the OPEC+ technical committee about the deterioration of the epidemiological situation in India gives rise to rumors that plans to increase production will be postponed.
On the eve of an important meeting on April 28, the cartel improved its forecast for the growth of global demand for black gold in 2021 from 5.6 million b/d to 6 million b/d. According to the estimates, global oil reserves will decline by 1.2 million b/d, rather than by 800,000 b/d, as previously expected, and will return to pre-crisis levels by the end of the second quarter. The alliance's technical committee will have to assess how well the improvement in demand in the US, China, and Europe offsets the decline in India, Japan, and other countries where the number of COVID-19 infections is growing rapidly. In southeast Asia, this leads to a reduction in domestic demand due to isolation and to a decrease in processing volumes due to disease and worker flight.
Some problems for the "bulls" for Brent and WTI are created by the rising US dollar. According to 45% of Bloomberg experts, the Fed will begin to wind down QE of $120 billion a month in the fourth quarter, 14% of respondents believe that this will happen in the third. Experts have earlier predicted the beginning of the process of normalization of monetary policy only in 2022. This kind of "hawkish" shift allowed the yield of treasury bonds to rise, and the US currency to strengthen.
Bloomberg experts' forecasts on the timing of the QE rollback
In my opinion, if the Fed was not impressed by the increase in US debt market rates in March, it is unlikely to react to the change in experts' forecasts. At the April meeting, Jerome Powell can use the words of Christine Lagarde that the exit from the emergency asset purchase programs is premature. That speech helped Lagarde to suspend the attacks of the "bulls" on EUR/USD for a while. The Fed chairman only needs to avoid scaring the financial markets. In my opinion, this task is within his capabilities, so oil should not be afraid of further strengthening of the US dollar.
Given that the powerful do not ignore the tense epidemiological situation in India (the United States and other countries are ready to help with both medicines and vaccinations), and the increase in the number of infected people in Japan is simply obliged to speed up the vaccination process, I would call the current difficulties of global demand a temporary phenomenon. In the United States and Britain, at least one injection was received by about 70% of the adult population, Europe intends to reach this figure by the end of the summer.
Technically, a triangle is forming on Brent's daily chart. A break of its upper limit near the $68 per barrel mark will allow the formation of long positions with a target of $78. There is a target reference point for the pattern AB=CD.
Brent, Daily chart
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