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The US dollar index dropped through the 101.27 low during the early Asian session on Friday. The index is seen to be trading at around 101.35 at this point in writing and is expected to resume its rally soon. The recent price drop has been accompanied by a strong bullish divergence on the RSI on lower timeframes, indicating a potential reversal ahead.
The US dollar index might have carved a meaningful downswing between 104.88 and 101.27. Bears have also successfully taken out initial support around 102.30 with relative ease. Ideally, bulls should take control in the near term and push the price through 103.50-60 as bears are taking a break.
Also, note that the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the above drop is also seen passing through the 103.55 mark. The probability remains high for a bearish reversal from here if prices manage to reach there. Any pullback rallies in the next few trading sessions will remain capped below the 104.88 mark as bears prepare to be back in control around 103.50.
Potential short-term rally towards 103.50, then drop through 97.65 against 104.88
Good luck!
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