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The US dollar ends the current week with a decline against all major currencies except for the Japanese yen amid the results of the Fed meeting and the growth in Treasury yields.
This week's key event was the Fed meeting on monetary policy, which we thought would not signal a possible change in the near future. The regulator left all the parameters of monetary policy unchanged, and its Chairman, J. Powell did not hint at the likely start of a reduction in government bond repurchases. On the contrary, the bank's decision and the words of its head contributed to the growth of demand for risky assets.
In terms of the dynamics of the US currency, it even received some support in volatile trading on the wave of an upward pullback of Treasury yields at the end of Thursday's trading.
Should the dollar's local appreciation be considered as the beginning of its strengthening on the whole front?
It should be not. First of all, this is due to the fact that the US dollar still remains the funding currency in view of the broadest stimulus measures and all kinds of support from the government of the American population. This is when it is profitable to borrow in dollars, and then buy either other highly profitable currencies or company shares and fix good profits.
At the same time, the market is not ready for its noticeable sales, as it understands that the monetary exchange rate cannot exist for an infinitely long excess, especially against the background of the recovery and then the growth of the US economy. Therefore, there is either its consolidation, or a smooth weakening with significant pullbacks in the currency markets.
Due to this, we believe that the dollar rate is unlikely to make a widespread significant weakening, and in general, its behavior is more like a sideways movement only in wider ranges.
Considering such market prospects and its general dynamics, we expect the general trends of this week to continue next week. After some recovery in the dollar rate, its weakening will most likely follow, so we believe it is necessary to sell it on the rise against all major currencies.
Forecast of the day:
The EUR/USD pair is consolidating. We believe it is possible to buy it on a decline around the level of 1.2100, with a likely growth to 1.2150.
The GBP/USD pair is consolidating above the level of 1.3930. If it holds, then the pair will most likely continue its growth to 1.4000.
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