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The price structure from April 19 to this day takes the form of the 1.3808-1.4016 trading range. The initial risk of such a formation occurred on May 3, when the price grew by more than 90 points, and this morning the pound is creating a similar sign as the price hit a peak yesterday. The probability of reaching the nearest level of 1.3972, which coincides with the MACD line on the daily, is at 70%.
On the four-hour timeline, a trading range is formed from Monday's high (1.3931) to Tuesday's low. With the price rising above the 1.3931 level, we are expecting another breakthrough to 1.3972. An exit above the level will open the second target at 1.4016. It is possible for the price to move back under 1.3072, which will indicate a false price exit above the MACD line on the daily chart.
If the price does not rise above 1.3931, then after the end of the mini-cycle in the gray area, the price is likely to move below the signal level of 1.3808 and will decline further to the 1.3610 target.
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