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Successful vaccinations in the US and Europe, and the associated hopes for the opening up of the world's leading economies and their rapid growth over the rest of the year, outweigh the factor of the tense epidemiological situation in Asia and contribute to the continuation of the Brent and WTI rally. The developed countries of the world are doing their best to help India, and ultimately the introduction of vaccinations in this country and the region as a whole will help to improve the situation. If so, the ceiling on the growth of global oil demand is not yet visible.
According to the International Energy Agency, the excess global reserves of black gold accumulated during the pandemic have disappeared. The organization calls on oil companies to stop investing in new fields to achieve zero emissions of harmful substances into the environment by 2050. In the United States, it seems, they are ready to follow these recommendations: the increase in American production recently is not at all the same as it was before the pandemic. In general, the backwardation in the Brent and WTI markets, when the nearest prices are higher than for futures contracts with more distant execution dates, indicates a limited supply.
Demand, on the contrary, risks continuing to grow by leaps and bounds, which, coupled with the weakening US dollar, allows banks and investment companies to raise their forecasts for black gold. According to Goldman Sachs, the North Sea variety will soon soar to $80 per barrel. ABN Amro believes that if Brent goes beyond the trading range of $70-$72, it will surely move to $78-$80 per barrel.
Dynamics of Brent and USD index
Currently, 82.3% of Americans (270 million people) and 44.1% of Europeans (197 million) have received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccines. The EU intends to bring the figure to 70% by the end of the summer. Collective immunity will contribute to the full opening of economies and the growth of tourism. At the same time, gasoline consumption will increase, which will raise the demand for oil. The summer season promises to be very hot for black gold, and no one now wants to miss the sharp rally in Brent and WTI.
Yes, we can talk about restraining factors in the form of a tense epidemiological situation in Asia and the approaching negotiations between the United States and Iran on the resumption of the 2015 nuclear deal, which will increase the risks of growing oil exports from Iran. Nevertheless, the "bullish" drivers are so significant that there is no serious correction. The slightest pullbacks are immediately redeemed, and the targets set for the upward movement really look impressive.
Technically, there is a Wolf Wave pattern on the Brent weekly chart. Its target in the form of a projection drawn from point 5 to line 1-4 is located near the $86.2 per barrel mark. The growth potential of the North Sea variety is far from exhausted, which is confirmed by a strong "bullish" foundation. In such circumstances, it makes sense to stick to the previous strategy of buying an asset on pullbacks. A strong breakout of the resistance at $70.05 can serve as a signal to open long positions.
Brent, Daily chart
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