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Unlike other world currencies that dance to the tune of US inflation, the British pound chose to ignore the fact that the index of personal consumption expenditures in April jumped to 3.6%, the base PCE - to 3.1%, which is the highest rate since the 1990s, and in normal conditions should increase the chances of the Fed winding down its quantitative easing program and raising the federal funds rate. Unfortunately, at present, the conditions are hardly ordinary.
Markets should adjust to the new reality – the Federal Reserve continues to consider the surge in inflation as a temporary phenomenon and is ready to allow the economy to overheat. At the same time, investors are well aware that even after the end of QE, the Central Bank will not leave the debt market, which will slow down the growth of their yields and the strengthening of the US dollar. How will the currencies of other countries take advantage of this? Time will tell. Sterling, for example, prefers to play its own growth drivers. Along with strong macro statistics, they should include "hawkish" notes in the speeches of Bank of England officials.
And if the speech of the outgoing Chief Economist Andy Haldane about the inflationary spiral and the return of the era of high inflation in the 1970s did not scare the markets too much, then the speech of Gertjan Vlieghe, who is usually referred to as MPC's "dove", breathed new life into the attacks of GBP/USD bulls. Vlieghe noted that the Bank of England may raise the rate in the first half of 2022 if the UK labor market manages to recover faster than previously expected.
And although this scenario is not a basic one for Vlieghe, the very fact that the "dove" spoke the language of "hawks" allowed the pound not to go on about the financial markets enchanted by the rise of PCE. Instead, GBP/USD quotes continued to consolidate in the range of 1.409-1.422, going beyond which will help clarify the pair's medium-term prospects.
Forecasts for the future dynamics of the Bank of England repo rate
In the week of June 4, investors working with the pound will be watching closely the releases of data on UK business activity and the US labor market. A feature of the current economic situation is the gradual recovery of the service sector, which is reflected in the faster growth of the purchasing managers' index in this sector than in the industry. Given the fact that more than 80% of the UK GDP is produced by the non-manufacturing sector, this country and its currency can become the main beneficiaries of the exit from lockdowns.
As for the US employment, the reaction of the GBP/USD pair to it looks transparent: weak data will not allow the Fed to taper QE earlier, which will have a positive effect on all the greenback competitors, and vice versa.
Technically, there is a combination of two patterns on the daily chart of the analyzed pair - "Three Indians" and "Splash and Shelf". The breakout of the upper border of the consolidation range of 1.409-1.422 will allow the formation of long positions. On the contrary, a successful assault on the low near 1.409 will give a reason for opening shorts.
GBP/USD, Daily chart
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