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Although it was not a working day yesterday in the United States and Great Britain, the pound showed gains, albeit insignificant. The growth continued in the Asian session. And at first glance, it looks rather strange, since, in fact, nothing interesting is published today neither in Great Britain nor in the United States in terms of macroeconomic statistics. The only significant thing is the final data on the PMI in the manufacturing sector, which should coincide with the preliminary estimates. That is, the market has taken this data into account for a long time. In particular, the index of business activity in the UK manufacturing sector should rise from 60.9 points to 66.1 points, which is an absolute record in the entire history of such observations.
Manufacturing PMI (UK):
The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the United States should also rise, though much more modestly (from 60.5 points to 61.5 points). And this is also a record high value. However, do not forget that all this has been known since the publication of preliminary estimates. Moreover, the growth of the pound also raises suspicions due to the time when it all began. All this is very much like banal speculation. And any speculative movement inevitably turns into an almost instant pullback. Moreover, from the point of view of fundamental analysis, there is no reason at all for any changes. In theory, we should observe a kind of lateral movement.
Manufacturing PMI (United States):
The GBP/USD currency pair has been following the sideways channel 1.4100 / 1.4235 for 10 trading days in a row, consistently working out the set boundaries. Such a long fluctuation in the price of one attracts special attention from speculators, which leads to an active growth in the market. Average daily volatility since May 18 has a scale of 83 points, which is quite a lot, and the structure of hourly candles reflects local bursts of activity.
If we proceed from the current location of the quotes, we can see that during the Asian session there was an attempt to break through the upper border of the side channel, but as a result, the volume of long positions again decreased.
In this situation, one should not rush to conclusions about a cardinal change in the market. A sideways channel breakout should be confirmed on a four-hour or daily timeframe outside a particular border.
Until confirmation occurs, the strategy is focused on a rebound as before.
From the point of view of complex indicator analysis, it can be seen that technical instruments signal a buy on the hourly and daily intervals. At the same time, minute intervals signal a sell due to the primary bounce of the price.
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