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EUR/USD 5M
The EUR/USD pair was trading exclusively in line with the macroeconomic background on Thursday. There were no important events or publications planned for the first half of the day in the European Union. Therefore, the quotes were in one place throughout the European session. The results of the European Central Bank meeting were summed up in the afternoon, a press conference with ECB President Christine Lagarde was held, and a report on US inflation was published. And these events caused a storm of emotions among traders, and the pair began to fly from side to side. We would like to note right away that the ECB meeting was practically a passing one. The only thing that can be noted is an increase in the rate of asset purchases in subsequent months (a decision made by the ECB), as well as increased forecasts for GDP for 2021-2023. The US inflation report (figure "2" in the chart) turned out to be higher than forecasted at 5%, which upset the dollar bulls. However, an overly strong macroeconomic background eventually caused multidirectional movements, which did not even make sense to try to work out. In general, the pair remained in the same limited range after a day as it had before. Let's start to deal with trading signals and how they should be processed. The first two signals were generated in the European trading session, both for buy, both for the rebound from the critical line. Formally, they could be worked out, but with the approach of the US events, it was necessary to either set Stop Loss to zero, or manually close them. The first option would eventually bring 0 points of profit, the second could bring 10. Then the price bounced twice (very inaccurately) from the critical line and twice from the Senkou Span B. It is clear that these signals should not have been worked out, since they were formed after important macroeconomic events and the market just started to "storm", which is clearly seen in the volatility at this time.
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. June 11. Inflation in the US is growing, the ECB leaves the parameters of monetary policy unchanged.
Overview of the GBP/USD pair. June 11. Regular negotiations between London and Brussels ended without progress.
EUR/USD 1H
The euro/dollar pair also flew in all directions on the hourly timeframe throughout Thursday. However, at the same time, it remained in the same limited range, in which it has been for more than three weeks. Therefore, despite the important macroeconomic events yesterday, they did not affect the technical picture of the euro/dollar pair. We have talked about it many times. On Friday, we still recommend trading from important levels and lines that are indicated on the hourly timeframe. The nearest important levels at this time are 1.2104, 1.2160, 1.2213 and 1.2243, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.2184) and Kijun-sen (1.2161) lines. The Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. Signals can be rebounds or breakthroughs of these levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price moves 15-20 points in the right direction. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. No important fundamental or macroeconomic events scheduled for Friday either in the European Union or in the United States. Therefore, in theory, trading should be much calmer. Although, in principle, yesterday the volatility remained very weak, especially for a day with such important events, only 51 points. Thus, on Friday, it can correspond to this value.
We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair.
COT report
The EUR/USD pair fell by 25 points during the last reporting week (May 25-31). The new Commitment of Traders (COT) reports showed that professional traders continue to build up buy positions in the European currency. This time they opened only 751 new Buy contracts, but closed 3,900 Sell contracts. Thus, the net position for this group of traders increased again, by 4,600. The bullish mood of professional traders is getting stronger, which can be clearly seen from the second indicator in the chart above, which reflects the changes in the net position for the "non-commercial" group. We see that this indicator has been constantly growing since mid-April, increasing the likelihood of further strengthening of the European currency. We have already said that the actions of the Fed and the US Congress are now simply blocking the actions of players in the foreign exchange market. Simply because professional traders make deals in both directions, and the Fed and the US authorities are constantly pouring new hundreds of billions of dollars into the economy. Therefore, the dollar is declining, despite the actions of the participants in the foreign exchange market. It seems that in recent months, players realized what they would have to work with in 2021, and simply followed the trend, not wanting to compete with the Fed. As a result, in early April, judging by the first indicator, a new round of the upward trend began.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.
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