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On Tuesday, global stock markets were under significant pressure after the news from China that Didi Chuxing suspended the download of an application due to the ongoing cybersecurity check. The news triggered a local decline in share prices, which plunged by 25% and led to increased tensions in the markets. This manifested itself in the decline in stock indices, the price of crude oil, and the strengthening of the US dollar as a safe-haven currency.
The event also caused a decline in the share price of other major Chinese companies listed on the US stock market: Baidu, JD, and Alibaba. It is clear that the wave of sales affected the shares of other non-Chinese companies.
Why did investors react so negatively to the local event with Didi Chuxing?
On the one hand, we believe that they began to fear that cyber threats to business not only in China but also in other countries, including the US, would cause a wave of negative trends in the work of companies, which would reduce their attractiveness. On the other hand, the stock market, especially in America, has already reached new highs based on the dynamics of stock indices and may begin to correct at any time, after receiving an impulse from negative news.
The reaction of the currency market was also quite timely. When global news gives rise to fears, investors begin to close positions and go into the world reserve currency, namely the US dollar.
What should be expected in the near future?
We believe that the fears associated with Didi will still be local. It is quite likely that there may be an upward pullback in the markets today, which will lead to demand for crude oil and a weakening of the dollar.
Today, the markets will focus on the publication of the minutes of the Fed's last monetary policy meeting, as well as the publication of data on the number of open vacancies in the JOLTS labor market. Here, vacancies are expected to increase by 9.388 million in May against 9.286 million in the previous reporting period.
Assessing the situation in the markets, we believe that it will return to normal if another batch of negative news does not emerge again, and the content of the FRS minutes shows that there are no serious reasons for the regulator to decide on a promising start to change the course of monetary policy.
Forecast of the day:
The EUR/USD pair is trading above the level of 1.1800. If it holds, the price is likely to rise to 1.1960.
The USD/CAD pair is consolidating above the level of 1.2445. A decline below it amid a recovery in oil prices will lead to a decline to 1.2345.
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