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The AUD/USD currency pair has not been considered for a long time, and this analysis on this trading instrument will be devoted mainly to the technical component. However, before that, let us briefly talk about today's speech by the head of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Philip Lowe.
In his speech today, the head of the RBA paid attention to inflation, which the head of the Australian Central Bank expects at the level of 2%-3%. Philip Lowe also stressed that the reduction of the quantitative easing program does not mean that the support for the national economy will stop. One of the main issues that concern market participants is the timing of a possible tightening of monetary policy, namely the beginning of an increase in interest rates. Like all other heads of the world's leading central banks, the head of the RBA noted that the timing of the rate hike will depend on specific macroeconomic indicators, as well as the success of overcoming the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. For employment to be full, unemployment must fall to a fairly low level of 4%. In general, the head of the RBA assessed the recovery of the Australian labor market as positive, important, and significant. Here are all the main points of the speech of the head of the RBA, and now we turn to the analysis of the charts of the AUD/USD currency pair.
Weekly
Although today is already Thursday, I suggest we begin with the weekly timeframe. As you can see, after reaching the most important psychological and technical level of 0.8000, the pair switched to a sideways trading mode, while the quote is still gradually decreasing, which means that sellers control trading on the pair. The weekly range in which AUD/USD is traded is 0.8000-0.7400. At the moment of writing, the pair is trading at the lower limit of this range and is trying to enter the limits of the Ichimoku indicator cloud. If the current week's trading ends below 0.7400, and even within the cloud, the bears' positions on the "Aussie" will certainly strengthen. The Australian bulls need to raise the quote above another landmark level of 0.7500, where the 50 simple moving average is located. It is a minimum task. The bullish scenario for the pair will acquire the most realistic outlines only in the case of a breakdown of the red Tenkan line and the blue Kijun line of the Ichimoku indicator, which are located in the price zone 0.7660-0.7720.
Daily
On the daily chart of this currency pair, a bearish picture is observed, due to the price finding under the Tenkan line, the orange 200 exponent, as well as under 89 EMA, 50 MA, and the pink resistance line drawn at points 0.7891-0.7776. While the pair is trading below the above indicators and the pink line, downward risks remain. Taking into account these technical moments, I consider the main trading idea for AUD/USD to be sales, which are better to plan after short-term corrective pullbacks to 0.7515, 0.7538, and 0.7600. For purchases, I suggest waiting for the formation of unambiguous bullish reversal patterns of candle analysis, preferably on larger timeframes, which were considered today.
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