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Bitcoin gave a clear signal about the displacement of the local oscillation zone on Friday. And on Monday, July 19, the cryptocurrency finally fell into the area of $31,200 and is gradually approaching the $30,000 mark. Despite the clear downward movement of the coin, BTC is still fluctuating in a wide range of $30,000-$41,000. Until the key line is broken, the probability of a bullish breakout to the nearest safe zone in the region of $32,800 remains.
Over the weekend, the first cryptocurrency held above the current support level and broke through the $32,000 mark. However, the asset failed to gain a foothold above the round mark, and BTC again slid to the fluctuation zone around $31,200. Even though the cryptocurrency retains the chances of making a breakout and entering a safe zone, the main priority for bitcoin remains the completion of the trading day above the horizontal support zone of $31,200. If the cryptocurrency completes the current day below this mark, then the movement to $30,000 will accelerate significantly. It is with this input that bitcoin rolls into the new trading week.
The horizontal charts clearly show that, even without news impulses, the indicators of the BTC/USD pair are smoothly approaching the main support area around $30,000. The bearish trend is interrupted by short-term bullish impulses that do not have the desired effect but slow down the price decline. If there is no serious announcement in the field of the crypto market, then we can expect a leisurely movement towards the support zone of $30,000. Further breakdown of this mark is quickly leveled by a rebound at the local level of $28,800. If bitcoin breaks through this line too, then a local sale may begin due to a large number of orders and stops concentrated at this mark. With sufficient market support, bitcoin will bounce back and bounce off the $25,000 mark and return to a wide range of fluctuations.
However, it should be noted that there are many "buts" that can affect the actions of investors and the situation on the market as a whole. First of all, the historical context, which suggests that BTC is approaching one of the most unfortunate months in its history. It is this factor that precedes the unhurried downward movement of the cryptocurrency. Another important factor that has already provoked the local BTC collapse is the expiration of the storage of bitcoins by Grayscale investors after a 6-month ban. The first restrictions were lifted yesterday, July 18, which provoked a sharp collapse of the cryptocurrency from the $32,000 mark. All in all, January shares of more than $1.4 billion can be sold in July, which at the current stage is a very significant figure for the market. In addition, the social activity on the network of the first cryptocurrency leaves much to be desired. Over the past week, the number of active addresses has decreased by 28%, while the retail audience of the cryptocurrency continues to decline. Ultimately, this can lead to the so-called "paralysis" of traders, which will negatively affect the rise in the price of bitcoin.
At the same time, a negative market sentiment may have a positive outcome. At the current stage, the community is extremely skeptical about the possible growth of the cryptocurrency market. However, given the experience of spring manipulation, major players may contribute to a backlash, resulting in a bullish surge and a wide trend reversal. In addition, it would be wrong to say that the bulls are not ready to buy back the price decline. This is evidenced by the annual indicator of the ratio of market and realized value, which reached -15%. Moreover, the bullish audience prefers to enter the market in the range from -25% to 35%. The mining industry is also gradually recovering, which is already giving positive signals to the market. For example, it became known that after the "relocation" of mining facilities from China, the difficulty of mining the first cryptocurrency dropped to the lows of January 2020. At the same time, the main technical indicators of bitcoin are gradually approaching their maximums.
Despite the local positive, as of July 19, bitcoin is much closer to the breakdown of $30,000. The likelihood of a bullish breakout to $32,000 remains, but the medium-term MACD and RSI indicators point to a downside movement. If a powerful news impulse does not happen, then bitcoin will slowly drop beyond the $30,000 mark by next week. The further movement of BTC will depend on the reaction of the market and the news background, which, despite the slight positive, is more annoying for investors.
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