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EUR/USD – 1H.
On Monday, the EUR/USD pair performed a fall to the level of 1.1772, a rebound from it, a reversal in favor of the euro, and an increase in the direction of the corrective level of 76.4% (1.1837). However, it has already made a new drop to the level of 1.1772 today. The rebound of quotes from this level will again work in favor of the European currency and new growth in the direction of the level of 1.1837. Closing the pair's exchange rate below the level of 1.1772 will increase the chances of continuing the fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 100.0% (1.1704). This week, there will be only one important event for the European currency – the ECB meeting. However, it can be really important. Many analysts are waiting for a new "dovish" rhetoric from Christine Lagarde. Not so long ago, the ECB announced a change in the approach to determining the target inflation rate. Now, it represents the expression "2% or slightly higher". However, inflation in the Eurozone continued to remain below 2% and did not change in June.
Nevertheless, a new wave of coronavirus diseases in some EU countries and the weak pace of economic recovery make traders fear new statements by Lagarde about additional economic stimulation or about increasing the pace of asset purchases under the PEPP program. Anyway, no one expects that the ECB president will announce a high recovery rate and the curtailment of the stimulus program. Thus, the main intrigue is whether these new "dovish" notes will be in Lagarde's speech. If so, the European currency may continue to fall in the direction of 1.1700 and 1.1600. If not, then the dynamics of the currency pair will most likely not change. On Monday, the information background was practically absent. It explains that the pair did not change its course during the first working day of the week. Today, the calendar of economic events is also empty for the euro/dollar pair. Thus, I do not expect global changes today either.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes performed a new fall to the corrective level of 76.4% (1.1782). The rebound of the pair's exchange rate from this level will again work in favor of the EU currency and some growth in the direction of the corrective level of 61.8% (1.1890). Closing quotes below the level of 76.4% will increase the chances of a further fall in the direction of the next corrective level of 100.0% (1.1606). There are no emerging divergences in any indicator today.
Overview of fundamentals:
On July 19, there was no single important event or economic report in America and the European Union. Thus, the information background was empty.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
On July 20, the calendars of macroeconomic events in the European Union and the United States are empty again. Thus, I do not expect strong movements today. There will be no information background.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report showed that during the last reporting week, the mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders again became more "bearish." Major players have opened 13,952 short contracts for the euro and a total of 2,332 long contracts. Thus, in the last four weeks, the number of short contracts focused on the hands of speculators has increased by 58 thousand, and the number of long contracts has increased by 1 thousand. Therefore, a further fall in the European currency is very likely. But bear traders need to put more pressure on the level of 1.1782. However, it should be noted that the total number of long and short contracts opened by all players is already almost the same. Recently, the "Commercial" category of traders has been actively getting rid of short positions.
EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
Sales of the pair are recommended with a target of 1.1704 if a close is made on the 4-hour chart below the level of 1.1782. I recommend buying the pair when it rebounds from the level of 1.1782 on the 4-hour chart with the targets of 1.1837 and 1.1890.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" are small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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