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The wave counting of the 4-hour chart for the Euro/Dollar instrument has not changed at all in recent days and remains quite ambiguous and frankly complex. At the higher scale, the wave pattern is more or less clear. At this time, wave c is presumably continuing its construction. The decline in quotes continues, albeit at a very weak pace. Nevertheless, it is still very difficult to trade at this time, since most of the internal waves do not exceed 100-120 points or even less, and the ascending and descending waves constantly alternate.
Any wave in the current wave structure can take on a more complex form at almost any time, so the wave count does not answer the question of how long the decline in the quotes of the instrument will continue. In addition, the last waves were almost horizontal, which further worsens trading conditions.
In the current situation, I recommend paying closer attention to the Fibonacci levels, as well as looking for one hundred percent confirmation that the current wave/trend section is completed. The current size of wave c is only slightly smaller than wave a. Thus, we can expect a decline in quotes with targets located near the Fibonacci levels of 100.0% and 127.2%.
The news background for the Euro/Dollar instrument remained very weak on Friday. Business activity indices were released in the European Union early this morning. For the manufacturing sector, the indicator decreased in July from 63.6 points to 62.6. For the services sector, it increased from 58.3 points to 60.4. The composite index of business activity increased from 59.5 to 60.6 points. However, all these changes were minimal and generally coincided with the expectations of the markets. Thus, the markets did not react to them in any way, and the amplitude of the instrument's movement at the moment does not exceed 15 basis points.
A little later, business activity indices will also be released in the US, but there are practically no hopes that the markets will strengthen their onslaught on the Euro/Dollar instrument at the very end of Friday and the trading week, during which they did not show any desire to actively trade.
Yesterday, the European Central Bank summed up the results of its July meeting. I can't say that there was any important information for the markets from this event, nevertheless, it is more important than the business activity indices. Also, Christine Lagarde made a speech and answered some questions. This gave markets the clarification that there will definitely be no curtailments of the PEPP and APP programs until the end of 2021. In the current situation, we can only wait for the development of events.
Based on the analysis, I conclude that the construction of the descending wave c can be completed in the near future. However, wave c is constantly becoming more complicated, so I recommend waiting for a decline to the 100.0% Fibonacci level. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 1.1704 mark may indicate the completion of the entire downward trend section. Also, a successful attempt to close above the 76.4% Fibonacci level, which corresponds to 1.1836, can indirectly indicate the readiness of the markets to buy the instrument.
The wave counting of the new downward trend segment is not quite unambiguous, but at this time it is presumably completed or is nearing its completion and has adopted a three-wave structure. Thus, now I expect the construction of a new minimum three-wave upward trend section.
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