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Yesterday evening's summing up of the results of the Fed meeting in no way affected the rate of the first cryptocurrency in the world. Bitcoin has risen quite easily to the level of $40,700 over the past day, worked it out, and even bounced back. However, there is no rapid decline in quotes yet. In the last few months, bitcoin has always been inside the side channel of $29,700 - $40,700. Thus, the working out of its upper limit and the lack of overcoming suggests that there is a high probability of the beginning of a new round of downward movement. Of course, we are dealing with the most volatile investment instrument. If we assume that most of the investors have already tuned in to purchases and believe that in less than six months, the bullish trend is able to recover, then bitcoin will continue to rise in price. But that's why the level of $40,700 is good. If there is a rebound, the probability of a new fall of bitcoin will be 70-80%. If this level is overcome, the probability of continued growth of quotes will be 70-80%. It is always worth listening to Elon Musk, since it is the CEO of Tesla who can easily and simply raise or lower the bitcoin rate by making loud statements. But no one can predict how Elon will distinguish himself tomorrow or in a week.
Therefore, for the time being, we proceed in our forecasts more from technical analysis and from the fact that the fundamental background for bitcoin has not changed in recent weeks. Support was received thanks to the conference "The B Word", at which many CEOs spoke in support of bitcoin. Among them were the head of Twitter, Jack Dorsey, the head of the Ark Invest investment fund, Cathie Wood, as well as Elon Musk. In addition, Elon Musk made several other statements outside the conference. However, all these are the words and faith in bitcoin of only three people. It is true that crowds of small investors are ready to follow these people, which often determine the mood of the cryptocurrency market. However, everyone understands that Tesla today can announce the possibility of paying for its electric cars with bitcoin, and tomorrow declare that bitcoin is not energy efficient and cancel the payment for goods in bitcoins. The same goes for Elon Musk. Today, he can say that bitcoin is the future, and tomorrow he can note that miners do not want to use renewable energy sources for cryptocurrency mining, which will bring down the bitcoin exchange rate. Thus, from our point of view, bitcoin still adheres to the correction scenario, which may last for the next year or two. It should be understood that the correction scenario does not mean that bitcoin cannot become more expensive in principle. Even over the past two months, bitcoin has worked out the $40,700 level several times, but it bounced down and fell to at least $31,000 each time.
Technically, bitcoin has worked out the target level of $40,700. The other day, there was a small pullback down, but at the moment bitcoin is again in an upward movement. We still expect that bitcoin will fall back to the level of $29,700 and try to overcome it again. Therefore, we believe that sales are more relevant now, at least until the $40,700 level is overcome.
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