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EUR/USD – 1H.
On Friday, the EUR/USD pair did not continue the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 61.8% (1.1919). After all, on Friday, several positive news for the euro came from the European Union at once, and all of them were economic. However, traders did not want to work out inflation that increased to 2.2%, unemployment that fell to 7.7%, and GDP growing by 2%. All these reports turned out to be better than traders' expectations. Thus, they had every reason for new purchases of the European currency. However, instead, a reversal was made in favor of the US dollar. The process of falling in the direction of the corrective level of 76.4% (1.1837) began, which the pair eventually did not even manage to reach. Thus, the rebound of quotes from this level will allow us to count on a new reversal in favor of the EU currency and the resumption of growth in the direction of the corrective level of 61.8% (1.1919).
Moreover, there was also some good news from the United States last week. The GDP report was weaker than traders' expectations. The Fed did not give any hints about completing the QE program in the coming months, and 194,000 people were infected with coronavirus in the United States on July 30.
Approximately the same figures were during the previous wave of the epidemic, which remains the strongest of all time. Thus, the US economy begins to slow down, and the number of infections in the US begins to grow. Therefore, I expect the growth of the European currency to continue. Several reports were also released in the US on Friday. In particular, the index of personal consumption expenditures, which increased by 0.5%, and Americans' personal income and expenses increased by 0.1% and 1%. However, if traders did not pay any attention to the European Union's strong statistics, these reports certainly did not arouse any interest in them. Thus, I recommend that we now wait to develop the epidemic situation in the United States. If things improve, it will be good for the dollar. However, given the mood of the Fed, which became known last week, I still do not expect a rise in the US currency.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes performed an increase to the corrective level of 61.8% (1.1890). The rebound of the pair's exchange rate from this level worked in favor of the US dollar. However, a new drop in quotes has not yet begun in the direction of the Fibo level of 76.4% (1.1782). Fixing the pair's exchange rate above the level of 61.8% will work in favor of resuming growth in the direction of the next corrective level of 50.0% (1.1978). The movements of the pair remain weak. There are no emerging divergences observed in any indicator.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
EU - index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (08:00 UTC).
US - ISM manufacturing index (14:00 UTC).
On August 2, one report will be released in the European Union and America. The indices of business activity in the areas of production will be released in the afternoon. I believe that traders can pay some attention to the ISM index, but the European index is unlikely to be reflected on the pair's chart.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report showed that during the last reporting week, the mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders again became more "bearish." Major players opened 1,775 short contracts on the euro and closed 5,665 long contracts. Thus, in the last six weeks, the number of short contracts focused on the hands of speculators has increased by almost 70 thousand, and the number of long contracts has decreased by 11. Therefore, a further fall in the European currency is very likely, according to COT reports. However, over the past week, the euro/dollar pair has not been able to continue the decline in quotes and, on the contrary, has begun the growth process.
EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
Today, I recommend staying in the pair's purchases with a target of 1.1919 on the hourly chart. If there is a close above it, then purchases should be kept with a target of 1.1985. To sell, I recommend waiting for the quotes to rebound from the level of 1.1919 on the hourly chart or close below the level of 1.1837. The target is the nearest corrective level.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" are small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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