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A wave layout on a 4-hour chart of EUR/USD remains the same. The currency pair is still making moves of no more than 50 pips daily. Besides, the trading instrument has been going mainly upwards over the last two weeks. However, in the couple of last days, we see a minor decline in EUR/USD that was triggered by a failed attempt of the pair to break 38.2% Fibonacci level. Thus, at present a new downward wave might have come into being that could be expected wave b inside a new uptrend section. Meanwhile, the first wave of this section does not allow us to make a conclusion that the uptrend section could be impulsive. At the moment, everything looks as if we are going to see a new correctional section, no matter whether it consists of three or five waves. Importantly, due to a downward correction, EUR/USD will hardly be able to extend a climb above the level of 1.24 where the previous uptrend section was completed. Moreover, currently, I reckon that the scenario with a complicated downtrend section is unlikely.
On Tuesday, the news background for EUR/USD was rather soft, though some economic data was released. I'm going to skip the ZEW economic sentiment index for Germany because recently, markets used to neglect even crucial reports and events. Nevertheless, let's discuss some macroeconomic data posted today. The most significant report was the revised EU GDP data for Q2 2021. According to the flash estimate, the EU economy expanded in Q2 by 2% sequentially. The revised figure was upgraded to 2.2%. In other words, the European economy has been growing faster than the market consensus. Notably, the euro did not find any support. The economic sentiment index for the EU in the ZEW survey plunged to 31.1 from 42.7. Even such a dismal change in September did not arouse any response from market participants.
Demand for EUR has not decreased. Today the range of price fluctuations remains muted of nearly 15 pips despite the two meaningful reports. To sum up, the instrument is trading quietly even despite the interesting news background. Let's wait until Thursday when the ECB is holding a policy meeting. This event can be a catalyst that is likely to set the market in motion. On Thursday, the ECB is due to come with a round-up of the policy meeting. ECB President Christine Lagarde will announce policy decisions at a press conference to follow. Perhaps, she will unveil any crucial information.
Taking into account the wave analysis, I make a conclusion that the downward section could have been completed at near 1.1704 that matches 100.0% Fibonacci level. Meanwhile, I still expect a further series of upward waves. For a while, there are no signs that the downward section will emerge again or will get more complicated. Therefore, I would advise buying EUR/USD with targets at 1.1965 and 1.2027, that correspond to 50.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels, at each bullish signal from MACD indicator. In case the pair fails to break 1.1895, that is 38.2% Fibonacci level, this will indicate that the market is ready to build wave b. Hence, I would recommend you resume buying above 1.1895 after wave b is completed.
A wave layout on senior timeframes looks rather convincing. We see three 3-wave sections of the uptrend. These sections are roughly equal in size. However, the final section has turned more complicated, but it was over at the same level where the previous 3-wave section.
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