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It's one thing when the Fed turns a blind eye to inflation growing by leaps and bounds and is ready to let the US economy warm up to red. Another is when the Central Bank is going to normalize monetary policy, even despite the slowdown in GDP. In the latter case, gold is not helped by the disappointing US labor market statistics for August, the increase in the number of COVID-19 infections, or the decline in GDP growth forecasts by Goldman Sachs and other banks. The controversial issue is which is the big safe-haven asset - the dollar or the precious metal? Which of these should be more responsive to the deteriorating global risk appetite?
The rally of the USD index and US Treasury bond yields in response to an increase in employment outside the agricultural sector by a modest, at first glance, 235,000, looks unusual. Nevertheless, if we assume that the Fed is guided by average indicators, and the loss of steam by the US economy is a relative thing, the rejection of QE looks very likely. Indeed, even a 6% GDP growth in 2021 can be considered very high compared to the +2.3% average for 2011-2019. Before the recession, an increase in employment by 235,000 per month would have been a serious driver of the dollar's strengthening.
The US currency is supported by the "hawkish" comments of the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, James Bullard, that it should start curtailing the $120 billion quantitative easing program this year, and completely get rid of it in the first half of 2022. The modest figures on the labor market are more of an anomaly than a trend. When the economy is coming out of a crisis, you need to be ready for a swing.
The fact that central banks, led by the Fed, intend to turn a blind eye to the COVID-19 Delta variant and are set to curtail monetary incentives is evidenced by the growing bond yields around the world. Auctions for the placement of debt obligations in the United States, Germany, and Britain play an important role in this process. Money moves from the secondary to the primary market, which increases bond rates.
Dynamics of interest rates on debt obligations
Rising dollar and US debt yields create an extremely unfavorable environment for gold. The bulls on XAU/USD still hope that the ECB will deliver a hawkish surprise at its meeting on September 9, and New York Fed President John Williams will dispel fears about the Fed's announcement of the start of QE curtailment at the next FOMC meeting. All this is not so incredible, especially in the context of the statement of Austria's central bank chief Robert Holzmann, that the tightening of monetary policy by the European Central Bank could happen earlier than expected if high inflation becomes a long-term factor.
Technically, the implementation of the "Three Indians" reversal pattern allowed the "bears" to launch a counterattack on precious metal. The consolidation of the price below the fair value of $1,810 per ounce, identified using the Market Profile, increases the risks of gold falling to pivot points at $1,775-1,780, and then to $1,735. The recommendation is to sell on pullbacks.
Gold, Daily chart
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