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The greenback managed to outperform the euro in the short-term. However, medium- and long-term prospects are not encouraging. The US dollar is not likely to outrun its rival in the long term
The US currency ended last week with gain, and now this trend continues. According to current reports on the dollar index (USDX), there is a bullish sentiment for the greenback. Many market participants are building up positions on the US dollar, which contributes to its rise. Notably, last week's net position for USD growth has updated the maximums for the last year and a half. Experts note that strengthening of this trend contributes to the dollar gain.
The greenback started the new week positively, having increased slightly against the euro. The US dollar is confident, having a strong basis for further growth, set a week earlier. Last Friday, on September 10, the dollar gained 0.6%, supported by the Fed's monetary policy and rising US Treasury bond yields. On Monday morning, September 13, the EUR/USD pair was in the range of 1.1793-1.1794, showing no upward trend.
The market participants' attention is now focused on the upcoming release of the US macro statistics block, especially on the inflation data. According to preliminary estimates, annual inflation slowed to 5.3% in August. Many analysts expect a slight decline to 4.2% in core inflation. This week, the country's reports on industrial production and retail sales are due. Experts believe these data will give a better assessment of the US economic situation and determine the USD movement vector.
Some currency strategists think that the euro will be able to outperform the dollar in the long-term. The USD has now won the short race, but it will be a short-term victory. The greenback might get a lift from disappointing macro statistics. Another important factor in favor of the single currency is a high probability of faster stimulus tapering by the ECB compared to the similar actions by the Fed. Experts believe that the European regulator will solve this problem faster than the US, which will have a positive impact on the euro. However, at the moment the fortune favors the USD and the EUR has to accept this scenario.
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