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Norwegian currency does not react to political disputes and the growing possibility of a key rate increase. The complexities of the current situation have almost no effect on its dynamics.
The 2021 Norwegian parliamentary election will be held on 13 and 14 September 2021. To date, the center-left is leading in the political race. At the same time, the center-right coalition led by the Norwegian Conservative Party is rapidly losing points and support from voters. There have been numerous disputes between political groups, including the Labor Party, over the future of the fossil fuel industry.
Labor opposes an accelerated reduction of mining in this sector, while other parties are ready to completely reduce mining by 2035. However, this does not apply to oil and gas, since Norway receives a great weight of funds from their production and sale. It is difficult to find a suitable replacement for these sources of financing, experts believe.
Currently, the currency market is more influenced by oil and gas prices than the political situation, as NOK is a commodity currency, and fluctuations in the cost of major hydrocarbon products affect its dynamics. The Norwegian krone moves to new highs against the euro and the Swedish krona, while remaining unchanged against the US currency. On Tuesday, September 14, the USD/NOK was trading in a range of 8.6095-8.6097, showing an upward trend.
As for the political and economic situation, there are growing expectations in Norway for a rate increase after the regulator's meeting scheduled for September 23. Nordea Bank currency strategists believe that the Norwegian krone will rise before the meeting of the Bank of Norway and will fall after it. After analyzing the current data, the experts concluded that before the first rise in interest rates, the Norwegian krone usually strengthens, and then moves sideways and goes down.
The recent strengthening of the Norwegian currency has slowed down the global trend showing a downturn in the financial market. The krone managed to hold on to its gains despite the weakening dollar and the stock markets' downfall. According to analysts of Nordea Bank, the currency has a good chance to continue its growth in the midterm. Experts believe that the Norwegian currency is heavily supported by the strong recovery of the national economy.
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