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Yesterday, the behavior of the market was somewhat strange, as the publication of the US employment data, which increased by 568 thousand, did not affect the market at all. Although the data exceeded all the wildest expectations, employment growth of 428 thousand was predicted. So, even if the data coincided with the forecasts, it is still a lot. The fact is that the unemployment rate has almost reached the Fed's target level, which means that the labor market is in equilibrium. As for its stability, it is enough for employment to grow by a little more than 200 thousand per month, and there are more than half a million. It turns out that the unemployment rate will continue to decline.
Consequently, the Federal Reserve System has actually no obstacles left to start curtailing the quantitative easing program. And logically, such strong growth in employment should have led to a noticeable strengthening of the US dollar. But that didn't happen. The thing is that the indicated currency was growing even before the publication of employment data.
Employment Change (United States):
The euro already had enough reasons to decline. We are talking about retail sales, which showed zero growth over the year. The growth rates were expected to slow down from 3.1% to 0.6%, which means that the forecasts were extremely negative anyway. But in the end, everything turned out to be much worse. Looking at the monthly data, retail sales showed an increase only by 0.3%, against the expected growth of 1.0%. Such an impressive decline in consumer activity is a direct consequence of the rapid rise in inflation. However, the European currency was already falling before the release of retail sales data. And it is not only it, but the pound was also declining. Thus, it was European statistics that were ignored, and the growth of the US dollar was associated with expectations of employment data.
Retail Sales (Europe):
The only thing worthy of attention today is the data on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. However, they are unlikely to be able to influence the situation in any way. The fact is that the number of initial appeals should be reduced by 14 thousand, and repeated ones by only 12 thousand. That is, the changes are extremely minor and rather even cosmetic. Moreover, the report of the United States Department of Labor is published tomorrow, and before such an important event, investors will remain cautious. In this case, the market is likely to go into a strong sideways movement.
A number of re-claims for unemployment benefits (United States):
The EUR/USD pair has updated the local low of the downward trend cycle again, eventually falling to the area of 1.1530. It can be assumed that the downward interest is still relevant in the market, but due to the upcoming economic event, a temporary stagnation in the borders of 1.1550/1.1600 boundaries may emerge.
The GBP/USD pair ended the correction in the area of 1.3650, where a gradual recovery process took place. A further increase in the volume of short positions is expected after the price is kept below the level of 1.3540.
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