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Yesterday, the price did not settle above the level of 1.1570 on the daily timeframe. It closed the day with a black candle and the price consolidation, on the contrary, took place below this level. The convergence of the price with the oscillator is still in effect, but the probability of a price breakdown to the target level of 1.1448 is increasing.
Let's look at the details on the four-hour chart. The price is still held by the MACD line. Now you can see that the price was unable to develop growth under the pressure of the balance indicator line. This means that in the short term, investors are still sticking to selling.
For the growth to develop, the price needs to show impulsive growth with consolidation not only above the level of 1.1570, but also above the balance line. A signal for the development of growth will be the price exit above yesterday's high of 1.1587. In this case, the Marlin Oscillator will return to the positive area and settle.
In order to develop further downward movement, the price needs to cross the Friday low of 1.1541. At the moment, the probability of a price reversal upward is 60%.
One of the factors of such an upward reversal is finding the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator at the support of the trend line of the weekly timeframe.
But here the situation is twofold - with the same probability this trend line can be overcome and the oscillator will form another technical pattern. We are waiting for the development of the current situation.
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