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US stock indices continue to trade sideways near all-time highs and are likely to resume growth in the near future. The key topic of recent weeks and even months has been the Fed's policy monetary tightening. The United States remains the largest economy in the world, and its national currency has not yet lost its global reserve status. Therefore, it comes as no surprise that market participants have a keen interest in the US regulator and its monetary policy. This week, the Fed has already expressed its view. To put it simply, the regulator itself does not know what to do next. How does it look in fact? The Federal Open Market Committee consists of twelve members, the seven members of the Board of Governors and five Reserve Bank presidents. Thus, in order to make a decision on monetary policy, at least seven votes are required. However, the views of six Fed members who spoke this week turned out to be extremely varied. For instance, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard believes that the regulator should "tack in a more hawkish direction" to keep inflation under control. Bullard supports the Fed's intention to trim monthly bond purchases at a pace of $30 billion per month. He also proposes considering an interest rate hike before the taper is complete. However, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said that the regulator should not rush to raise interest rates, noting that anxiety over high inflation could be misleading. According to Daly, if there was no pandemic and the inflation rate was high, the Fed should have sounded the alarm and probably even have considered an interest rate hike.
Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari also signalled his opposition to an interest rate hike and a faster-than-expected tapering of the QE program. "If we overreact by saying, 'Let's just change the path of monetary policy to try to deal with a one-time effect,' that could lead to a worse long-term outcome for the economy," he said. At the same time, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said that it was necessary to wait for November inflation data or a few more months to gauge the tenacity of inflation and the strength of the labor market and only then draw conclusions. Many dovish policymakers of the US central bank still believe that the current rise in inflation is a temporary phenomenon and it will start to slow down soon. However, the pressing question is now as follows: to what level will inflation climb before it starts to decline? It is unlikely that Fed members will be satisfied with an increase to 10% and then a gradual decrease to 5%.
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