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The EUR/USD pair registered a swing higher as the Dollar Index was in a corrective phase. Now, the DXY ended its leg down and it seems determined to come back higher. DXY's rally could force the USD to appreciate versus its rivals. It was trading at 0.9892 at the time of writing.
Fundamentally, the price crashed after the US data came in better than expected yesterday. The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change was reported at 208K above 200K expected and compared to the 185K in the previous reporting period, ISM Services PMI was reported at 56.7 points versus 56.0 expected, while the Trade Balance and Final Services PMI reported better than expected data as well.
Today, the Euro was weakened by the German Factory Orders indicator which reported a 2.4% drop compared to the 0.8% drop forecasted. Later, the US Unemployment Claims could be reported at 205K in the previous week. Tomorrow, the US data could be decisive as the US is to release the NFP, Average Hourly Earnings, and the Unemployment Rate.
EUR/USD found resistance after reaching the 1.0000 psychological level. It has dropped below the median line (ml) and now it has retested the weekly R1 (0.9920). Now, is almost to reach the ascending pitchfork's lower median line (lml) which represents dynamic support.
Yesterday's low of 0.9834 represents a critical downside obstacle. As long as it stays above the lower median line (lml), the rate could try to come back higher again.
Staying below the minor downtrend line and making a new lower low, a bearish closure below 0.9834 activates more declines and brings short opportunities with a potential target at the weekly pivot point at 0.9730.
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