01.05.201315:41 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY : downside

Análisis a largo plazo

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Overview:
The USD/JPY to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting two-week low of 96.99 Tuesday as markets await the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee interest rate decision at 18:00 GMT. The Fed is expected to maintain its $85 billion monthly bond-buying program, but market participants are watching closely for hints about how worried policy makers are about the recent economic pullback. Liquidity will be thin today as financial markets in several countries are shut for Labor Day holiday. The USD/JPY undermined by negative USD sentiment as lower-than-expected 0.3% rise in U.S. 1Q Employment Cost Index (vs +0.5% forecast) and the surprise drop in U.S. ISM-Chicago PMI to three-and-a-half year low of 49.0 in April from 52.4 in March (vs forecast for rise to 52.5) pushed back expectations of when the Federal Reserve will begin to wind down its bond-buying program. The USD/JPY also weighed by low U.S. Treasury yields; Japan exporter sales. But the USD/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japan importers; the Bank of Japan's aggressive easing measures to help reach its 2% inflation target; yen-funded carry trades amid positive risk sentiment (S&P rose 0.25% overnight to record closing high of 1597.57) as stronger-than-expected rise in U.S. Conference Board's consumer-confidence index to 68.1 in April (vs 62.0 forecast) from revised March reading of 61.9 (first reported as 59.7) and bigger-than-expected 9.3% rise in U.S. February S&P Case-Shiller 20-city home-price index (vs +9.0% forecast) boosted investor risk appetite. Yen crosses vulnerable to 01:00 GMT final April CFLP China manufacturing PMI. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD & stochastics bearish; the five-day moving average has staged bearish crossover against 15-day MA.

Trading recommendation:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. The pair is likely to trade in lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 96.99 in view, breach of this target will move further the pair downward and you should expect the second target at 96.6 . Pivot point stands at 97.75. In case the price moves in opposite direction and returns from its support and moves above its pivot point then trading in higher range is the most favorable and buy position is recommended above its pivot with the first target at 98.17 and the second target at 98.45.

Support levels:
S1 - 96.99 (Tuesday's low)
S2 - 96.6
S3 - 96.4

Resistance levels:
R1 - 98.13-98.20 band (Tuesday's high-Monday's high)
R2 - 98.45
R3 - 98.65

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