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The EUR/USD pair was trading very actively on Friday, even though it was on December 31st. Nevertheless, traders found grounds for activity. This led to a rise of 80 points in the pair during the day. This growth pushed the pair to close above the sideways corridor and also above the Fibonacci level of 161.8% (1.1357). However, on January 3, the pair reversed in favor of the US currency and settled below this level. Therefore, firstly, the fall in quotations may continue today towards the level of 1.1250. Secondly, the pair could start an uptrend in the coming weeks. However, to buy the Euro we now need a new close above 1.1357. There is not much new information. Most traders and analysts are still only discussing the Omicron strain and its worldwide spread. Although the topic has been on the table for over a month and many countries have set anti-record levels of disease, I am not sure that the euro or the dollar has paid attention to the next wave of the pandemic.
I believe that only the consequences of another epidemic wave will be able to cause a certain reaction, which will lead to a change in the EUR/USD exchange rate. However, that is not to be expected at the moment. I think that the more interesting and important factors are still the actions of the ECB and the Fed in the coming months. Notably, Jerome Powell announced a course of monetary tightening by the Fed, yet the US currency has not been rising as might be expected in the last month. However, will the pair be able to resist another fall if the Fed announces a complete withdrawal of the QE program by March 2022? A similar program in the EU, called PEPP, is also due to end in March. In addition, bear traders for 2021 could satisfy their need to sell the pair, so despite the information backdrop earlier this year, the pair could show gains.
On the 4-hour chart the pair closed above the half-down-side corridor, which also allows us to expect some gains now towards the retracement level of 127.2% (1.1404). This level is near enough. A close above it would allow expecting a stronger rise in the Euro towards the retracement level of 100.0% (1.1606). There are no emerging divergences in any of the indicators today.
News calendar for US and EU:
EU - Manufacturing Business Activity Index (09-00 UTC).
On January 3, there will be almost no important economic events in the EU and the US. Today, traders can only pay attention to the Business Activity Index, which now stands at 58.0 points. If the deviation from this figure is significant, a reaction can be expected. However, I don't think this information background will have much impact on the traders' sentiment.
EUR/USD outlook and tips for traders:
After the pair made a reverse close below the correction level of 1.1357 today, you can even open short positions with a target of 1.1250. But in case of a reverse close above the 1.1357 level I recommend opening long positions with a target of 1.1450. I will try to build an uptrend line on both charts in the near future and the euro will try to maintain its uptrend.
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