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According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Monday performed a fall in the direction of the corrective level of 38.2% (1.3418), simultaneously completing a close under an upward trend corridor. Thus, at the moment, the mood of traders is characterized as "bearish". And if so, the fall in quotes can be continued in the direction of the Fibo level of 38.2% (1.3418). The rebound of the pair's rate from the level of 50.0% (1.3497) will work in favor of the US currency and the resumption of the fall. Fixing the pair's rate above the level of 50.0% will allow traders to count on the resumption of growth in the direction of the corrective level of 61.8% (1.3576). The information background for the pair was very weak on Monday. Nothing but the index of business activity in the US manufacturing sector was published on this day. Today the situation remains the same.
In the UK, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector was released in the morning, which showed an increase in December to 57.9. Thus, business activity in manufacturing even grew in December, although this month accounts for the strongest increase in the number of omicron diseases in the country. However, at the time of the outbreak of the pandemic, the services sector suffered the most, which also has a serious share in the final GDP indicator, which, according to most experts, will seriously slow down in the fourth quarter in both the US and the UK. Thus, strong business activity in production should not be misleading. Also, the strong growth of the British dollar in recent weeks should not be misleading. I have already said that when looking at the older charts, it is visible that a correction is needed after a long fall of the pair. Perhaps the growth of the British is this correction, after which its decline will resume. Today, traders are still waiting for the ISM index in the USA, and tomorrow - the FOMC protocol in the USA.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair closed above the Fibo level of 50.0% (1.3457). Thus, the growth of the British dollar can be continued in the direction of the next corrective level of 38.2% (1.3642). This is the difference with the hourly chart, where a drop is more preferable. But if there is a closure below the 50.0% level on this chart, then the probability of the British falling in the direction of the corrective level of 61.8% (1.3274) will increase. A bullish divergence has formed at the CCI indicator, but it will be canceled if there is a closure below the 50.0% level.
News calendar for the USA and the UK:
UK - PMI index for the manufacturing sector (09:30 UTC).
US - ISM manufacturing index (15:00 UTC).
On Tuesday in the UK and America, the calendars contain only one entry each that attracts attention. The British PMI index has already been released, only the American business activity index remains. However, the influence of the information background today is unlikely to be strong or at least tangible.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations to traders:
I recommend selling the pound if there is closure under the upward trend corridor on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3418. At this time, you can sell the pair if there is a rebound from the level of 1.3497. I recommend buying the Brit if there is a rebound from the 1.3418 level on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.3497.
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