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It is obvious that a slump in the euro, which occurred on Tuesday, should be followed by a rebound. To show even a technical correction, the euro should have some reasons. However, at the moment, it is almost impossible to find any. Although the previous retail sales data was revised to 4.0% from 3.9%, the recent figures turned out to be devastating. Economists had expected a decline in the growth pace to 3.1%, but it tumbled to 0.2%. Judging by the mounting concerns about the upcoming recession, Europe will be the first to tip into it. There is nothing strange that before the US trade, the euro was rapidly falling, while the pound sterling was stagnant.
Eurozone Retail Sales
During the US trade, the market remained stagnant, thus reflecting the need in a local correction. The fact is that the final data on the US business activity exceeded the forecast. In particular, the services PMI declined to 52.7 points from 53.4 points, whereas the preliminary estimate unveiled a drop to 51.6 points. The composite PMI, which should have slid to 51.2 points from 53.6 points, inched down to 52.3 points. As a result, the US dollar remained unchanged. In other words, the greenback's upward potential is significantly limited and the euro is searching for at least one reason to rebound.
US Composite PMI
As strange as it might seem, today, the US dollar may continue gaining in value. The fact is that the business activity report is less important than the employment data. According to the forecast, US employment may add 180,000, whereas in the previous months, it increased by 128,000. It means that the labor market situation is improving. Notably, tomorrow, the US Labor Department is going to publish its reports.
US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
The US will also publish the unemployment claims data, which is of less importance than the employment data. In addition, the indicator is expected to show only an insignificant change. The data is likely to be mixed.
In the last few days, the euro/dollar pair has dropped to all-time lows. This fact caused a speculative boom, which led to an inertial movement in the market. At the moment, we see a technical rebound, which corresponds to the oversold signal. If the price settles below 1.0150, the pair may slide deeper.
Meanwhile, the pound/dollar pair followed the euro/dollar pair and fell, breaking the psychological level of 1.2000. Since the market sentiment is still bearish, the pound sterling has every chance to decline even more.
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