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06.10.202215:00 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/CAD: Strong upward momentum

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As we noted in our previous review today, market participants will be waiting for the publication on Friday (at the beginning of the American trading session) of the report of the Department of Labor with data on the US labor market for September.

Tomorrow (at 12:30 GMT), Statistics Canada will publish a report on Canadian labor market data for September. The previous report showed that the unemployment rate in Canada rose to 5.4% in August from 4.9% in July, which was worse than market expectations of 5%. The net change in employment was -39.7k versus the market's expectation of +15k. Full-time employment decreased by 77.2k and part-time employment increased by 37.5k over the same period.

The Bank of Canada is in a difficult situation. On the one hand, it needs to control the level of inflation, which continues to rise. On the other hand, it also needs to take into account the deteriorating macroeconomic data from Canada.

The next meeting of the BoC is scheduled for October 26. Assessing the reaction of the Canadian dollar to the results of the September meeting (it first strengthened, and then continued to sharply weaken against the US dollar), it would probably be logical to assume further growth in the USD/CAD pair, also taking into account the renewed fall in stock indices today and expectations of the development of a super tough monetary policy cycle of the Fed.

Today, the volatility of the USD/CAD pair will increase at 12:30 (release of important macro data for the US), 14:00 (Ivey business activity index, showing the degree of economic health of Canada), and at 15:35 (Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speech).

As of writing, USD/CAD pair is trading near 1.3680 in a stable bull market zone. Given the strong upward momentum and expectations of further strengthening of the US dollar, we also consider the further growth of USD/CAD as the main scenario. A break of yesterday's high at 1.3695 will be an additional confirmation of our assumption.

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