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Early in the European session, Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around 1,980.63 above the 200 EMA and above the 21 SMA located at 1,961.
The price of gold rose from a low of $1,953.40 to a high of $1,983.15, a recovery of about $30. This comes on the back of the US dollar's weakness due to the approval of the agreement on the debt ceiling in the House of Representatives.
On the 4-hour chart, we can see that gold is trading inside an uptrend channel formed since May 29. Gold is expected to continue its rise in the next few hours only if it trades above 1,978. Long positions are possible with targets at 1,993 (100% Fibonacci level) and at the psychological level of $2,000.
Conversely, in case gold falls below the 200 EMA (1,978), we could expect a technical correction towards the bottom of the uptrend channel around 1,967. With a sharp break below this channel, the price is likely to reach 1,960 and 7/8 Murray area around 1,937.
In the next few hours, we should be braced for strong volatility because the NonFarm Payroll (NFPs) data will be published in the American session. This could trigger a strong movement in gold and we could expect it to reach the 1,993 resistance and even the psychological level of $2,000.
If the report logs robust employment in the United States in May, we could expect a drop in the gold price below 1,978 (200 EMA). The instrument could reach 1,966 or even reach the weekly support zone at about 1,950.
Our trading plan for the next few hours is to buy above 1,978 or wait for a 4-hour close below 1,975 to confirm sell positions. The eagle indicator is in an undecided area, so we should wait for a clear signal to be confirmed.
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