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After a brief recovery movement, Bitcoin is currently attempting to break through $16,500. Given the strategic significance of the $16,600–$17,000 range for further upward movement, the bulls must maintain upward momentum in the near term.
Due to the size of the offer that formed in the $16,600–$17,000 range, a breakdown of the channel's boundaries could result in increased volatility and a strong movement in one of the directions. 950,000 addresses have acquired about 800,000 BTC over the last few weeks fluctuations in this range.
Given this, the bulls will attempt to establish a foothold above $17k to secure support and continue the upward trend. However, the bears' pressure is only growing due to some institutions and miners caving in.
Bitcoin Whales with balances between 10,000 and 100,000 sold or distributed more than 100,000 BTC over the last two days. Analysts at Glassnode also point out the continued debauchery of miner sentiment. Due to a significant sell-off, the overall balance of mining companies hit an 11-month low.
Fundamental background
The fundamental background keeps getting better in a challenging on-chain situation. The biggest exchange, Binance, has revealed plans to establish a $1 billion fund to purchase assets for struggling businesses. This significant event encourages investors to be upbeat and confident.
Additionally, the Fed reports' release helped to persuade the market that the current monetary policy had reached a turning point. Authorities have determined that it is best to slow down the rate of rate increases. As a result, the likelihood of a rate increase of 50 basis points in December has risen to 75% in the futures market.
The market can anticipate a wave of optimism and a recovery movement for the major cryptocurrencies if inflation statistics are positive by the end of November. However, the market psychology has yet to reach a turning point, so there is still a chance that BTC will continue to fall.
USD/BTC Analysis
Bitcoin has continued to rise after rebounding off the $15.5k support level. Although the price of the cryptocurrency has reached the $16.6k resistance level, the technical indicators on the daily chart suggest that the bullish trend may continue to strengthen.
The MACD is about to form a bullish pattern for the first time since early November, and the stochastic oscillator has formed and is executing a bullish intersection. This suggests that consumer confidence is rising and that there is a good chance that prices will rise even more.
Results
The fundamental backdrop and some technical signals suggest the likelihood of forming a local Bitcoin bottom. The total supply of "unprofitable" BTC has reached 20,272,000, according to Glassnode experts, which historically denotes the formation of a market bottom.
However, too many "dark horses" are available, and one of them could suddenly turn into a "black swan," reducing market capitalization. We're referring to Genesis, Gemini, Grayscale, and a few mining firms. Considering these elements and the market's turbulence, it is impossible to rule out further immersion despite the momentary thaw.
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