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On Thursday, US stock index futures rose as investors received confirmation that the Federal Reserve's peak interest rate will be within levels already priced in by the markets.
Futures contracts on the S&P 500 index rose by 0.3% and the Nasdaq 100 futures jumped by 0.4% after yesterday's sell-off in the regular session following the release of the Fed minutes and statements made by committee officials. The European stock market halted two days of declines, and an upbeat outlook from Nvidia Corp. sparked a rise in tech stocks.
Yesterday's speech by Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams coincided with the expectations of traders, which allowed the futures market to recover today. He reiterated that the US central bank would remain committed to its 2% inflation target and stressed that monetary policy must bring supply and demand into balance to lower inflation. "At the end of the day our job is clear," Williams said at a conference held at the New York Fed.
After months of divergence over the perceived path of Fed monetary policy tightening, markets are increasingly converging in their expectations, reducing the potential for hawkish shocks in the future. One of the big problems may be that market expectations do not actually match the statements of Fed officials and the dovish reversal announced late last year actually continues. For now, traders are expecting a peak Fed rate of 5.55% by July, up from the 4.90% they were betting on at the beginning of the year.
Treasury yields rose across the curve. The 10-year bond added 3 basis points and soared to 3.95%.
US jobless claims data are coming out today, which may help shed light on the strength of a labor market that has stubbornly remained resilient in the rate hike cycle.
Oil prices stabilized after the longest series of losses this year. Traders assessed a mixed demand outlook on a tightening of US monetary policy and the reopening of the Chinese economy, allowing quotes to interrupt the fall.
As for the S&P 500 index, the pressure on risky assets has eased a bit but it has not changed the bearish trend. The index can recover only if bulls manage to get back above $4,010 today, pushing the price higher to $4,038. In addition, bulls need to take control over $4,064, which may cancel the bear market. After that, we can expect a more confident surge to $4,091. If the index declines amid strong labor market data, as well as a lack of demand, bulls will have to protect $3,983. If this level is pierced, the trading instrument can be pushed to $3,960 and $3,923.
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