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US Congress reached a preliminary agreement on raising the US debt ceiling on Saturday evening, thereby averting a default that could have caused serious disruptions in the global economy. President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy have concluded a deal that will allow the passage of a bill to increase the debt limit.
The deal reportedly includes a two-year appropriations agreement, under which non-defense spending will remain at roughly the same levels. It raises the debt limit until January 2025, after the next presidential elections. Experts say that a similar scenario could occur in 2025, when the Treasury Department employs extraordinary measures to prevent a default in January.
The agreement will undoubtedly help alleviate recent tensions in financial markets, where investors have been demanding higher yields on securities maturing in the near future. There has been a slight increase in risky assets such as euro and pound, as well as Bitcoin and Ethereum in the crypto market.
However, investors' attention may shift to other risks as the Treasury Department will likely seek to replenish its depleted cash balance, which fell below $39 billion on Thursday, the lowest level since 2017. The resulting wave of bill sales will likely drain significant liquidity from the markets, adding to the pressure.
While tense negotiations have put the country at an impasse, the agreement could politically support both Biden and McCarthy, provided that it receives sufficient support. However, a handful of conservative lawmakers could be enough to block the deal.
In terms of the forex market, euro is still bearish, but seeing growth is not impossible. For this, the quote has to remain above 1.0710, or reach 1.0750. This will allow a rise beyond 1.0790, heading towards 1.0840. In case of a decline around 1.0710, euro will fall to 1.0670 and 1.0630.
Pressure on pound also remains, so to see growth, the quote has to consolidate above 1.2390. Only that will trigger a much larger rise to 1.2430 and 1.2470. In case there is a decline, bears will attempt to take 1.2345, which could lead to a fall to 1.2300 and 1.2260.
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