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The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) for the month of June takes place exactly one week from now, just a day after the US releases its latest report on inflation pressure. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will undoubtedly affect the Fed's decision on monetary policy, even though the bank's preferred index is the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index.
A month after the Fed initiated its first rate hike in March 2022, inflation exceeded 9%. However, inflationary pressure significantly decreased over the past year, albeit remaining above the Fed's target level. This is despite a tight monetary policy consisting of 10 consecutive rate hikes, resulting in the Fed's benchmark rate reaching 5%-5.25%.
Currently, the probability of the Fed pausing its rate hike stands at 81.1%.
Forbes sees the overall inflation in the US to slow down in May, while core inflation will continue to remain above the Fed's target.
Past data shows that overall inflation really fell significantly since last summer, while core inflation remained within a narrow range. Forecasts do not anticipate significant changes.
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