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Early in the European session, the EUR/USD is trading around 1.0787 above the 21 SMA within the downtrend channel formed since early December.
According to the H1 chart, the euro has been showing some recovery after reaching the low at 1.0754 and is consolidating above the moving average which means that a recovery could be extended in the coming days, only EUR/USD manages to stay above 1.0800.
In the coming hours, during the US session, the Non-Farm Payrolls data will be released, and the data is expected to be positive for the US dollar which could pressure on the euro. Thus, EUR/USD could drop to 1.0765 and even reach 4/8 Murray around 1.0742. Finally, it could test the bottom of the downtrend channel around 1.0728.
On the other hand, if the US data is weak for the US dollar, we could expect a sharp break above the bearish trend channel which could be seen as an opportunity to buy above 1.0800 and at the same time, it could confirm the bullish pennant pattern. So, the target could be at 1.0843 and 5/8 Murray at 1.0864.
The eagle indicator has reached the overbought zone on the H1 chart. It means there will be a technical correction in the coming hours which could be grasped as a signal to sell only if EUR/USD consolidates below 1.0780.
The market sentiment report shows that there are 57.22% of traders who are buying the euro. According to our contrarian strategy, we expect the euro to continue its fall in the coming days and the instrument may reach 1.0700.
Our trading plan for the next few hours is to sell the euro below 1.0780 with targets at 1.0765, 1.0742, and 1.0728. Conversely, a consolidation above 1.0800 on the H1 chart will be seen as a buying opportunity with the targets at 1.0864.
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