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The empty economic calendar, as well as the absence of any other news capable of influencing the market, has created favorable conditions for the pound. The pair continues to make up for its recent losses. However, we can't say that the dollar is no longer overbought. The US dollar may weaken further, especially since there will be a formal reason for this in the form of the US unemployment claims report. The total number of claims is expected to increase by 7,000. Although the changes are extremely insignificant, just the mere fact that it will rise, given the dollar's overbought condition, could be enough for the greenback to weaken further. However, this is only applicable if the data align with forecasts or turn out worse. If the data shows better figures, considering recent labor market data, this report might provide support to the dollar and may even push it to rise.
GBP/USD, during an intense pullback, returned to the sideways channel between 1.2600 and 1.2800, which it was previously in. The area of the local low that was established in December 2023 serves as support for the bears. The trading chart has already seen such similar activity from long positions, which eventually led to the end of the downward cycle.
On the four-hour chart, the RSI upwardly crossed the 50 middle line, indicating an increase in the volume of long positions.
On the same time frame, the Alligator's MAs are intersecting each other, which corresponds to signs of a slowdown in the downward cycle.
Keeping the price above the level of 1.2600 during the day has already questioned the relevance of the downward cycle. However, we can only confirm the uptrend using the weekly chart. In this case, the pair may go back to moving within the specified range.
The complex indicator analysis points to an upward cycle in the short-term and intraday periods.
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