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A stronger-than-expected report on consumer inflation in the United States, published on Tuesday, confirmed the market's expectations that the Federal Reserve would maintain interest rates at a high level. Consequently, this news led to a decline in the yellow metal. However, a combination of certain factors provides some support for gold and helps limit the maximum decline.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar retreated from the highest level observed in November amid a moderate decline in Treasury bond yields.
Alongside the overall weaker sentiment in the stock markets, this helps gold to defend itself with the support of the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). Nevertheless, the mentioned fundamental background suggests that the path of least resistance for XAU/USD is downward. Therefore, any attempt at recovery may be considered an opportunity to sell and is likely to disappear quickly.
From a technical standpoint, gold seems ready for further decline and will test the 200-day SMA. Sales below the region of $1,990 (the 100-day SMA) may expose the support of the 200-day SMA, which is currently tied to the $1,965 area.
A convincing break below the 200-day SMA will be considered a new stimulus for bears and pave the way for further short-term declines in the exchange rate. Then, the price of gold will be able to drop to intermediate support around $1,950 and subsequently decline to the November 2023 low.
On the other hand, any attempt at recovery beyond the $2,000 mark will encounter resistance around $2,011. However, subsequent purchases leading to a rise above the $2,015 level may trigger increased short position coverage and raise the price of the precious metal to the 50-day SMA, currently tied to the $2,030 zone.
A decisive breakout of $2,030 would open the way to the $2,065 supply zone, with some intermediate obstacles around $2,045.
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