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As stocks fell on Friday, the euro failed to develop a full-fledged upward movement, closing the day up by 5 pips. This morning, the euro is trying to rise without external influence, but technically, the price has reached the intersection point of the upper boundary of the descending price channel and the cyclical line, from which a bearish trend reversal is expected. Also, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator has reached the border of the uptrend territory, and a reversal may occur from this line.
Therefore, the main scenario follows that the euro may fall through the nearest support at 1.0724 to the target level of 1.0632. Maybe even lower, to the lower boundary of the price channel, around the target level of 1.0440 (the 2023 low).
If the price breaks above the upper boundary of the price channel at 1.0793, the channel will be invalidated, and the price will continue to rise to the nearest target level of 1.0825 with the goal of attacking the MACD line around the 1.0870 mark.
On the 4-hour chart, the price has settled above the balance and MACD indicator lines, and Marlin is rising in the positive territory after bouncing off the zero line. The growth seems deceptive, especially since the stock market has not yet come into play. If the price returns below the MACD line (1.0763), this may bring back the bearish scenario. Today, the US and Canadian markets are closed for a holiday.
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