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The euro closed Monday up by 12 pips. This morning, the single currency continued to rise, which shows that it intends to reach the upper boundary of the price channel (1.0873). Until the price consolidates above this level, the price will continue to fluctuate within the sideways range before (as we expect) it falls towards a strong support level at 1.0796. The Marlin oscillator barely reacted to yesterday's rise.
Today, the U.S. Treasury is auctioning bills and bonds totaling $344 billion, with an auction for 2-year and 7-year notes totaling $72 billion scheduled for tomorrow. Typically, such significant volumes are sold with a strong (stable) dollar to maintain investor interest. In turn, investors buy dollars to purchase bonds. The second estimate of GDP numbers for Q1 will be released on Thursday. Against this backdrop, the euro has little room for growth unless Europe suddenly announces surprising news. But if it does, the initial target will be the level of 1.0905.
On the 4-hour chart, the euro is testing the MACD indicator line, which has closely approached the target level of 1.0873. The Marlin oscillator is optimistic, but we can only see signs of growth when the price consolidates above 1.0873. A break below yesterday's low at 1.0841 will serve as a signal that the price will fall. However, we also consider the possibility that the price could move sideways until the end of the week.
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